Join The Roar for live blog coverage of the 2015 Cotton Bowl Classic, the second national semi-final, on New Year’s Day from Midday AEDT
It’s likely that the second national semi-final, to be played at AT&T Stadium in Dallas, home of the NFL’s Dallas Cowboys, will be the complete opposite of the first playoff game. At the Orange Bowl, we’ll almost certainly see a stack of points, but under the roof in Jerry World, the Crimson Tide of Alabama and the Michigan State Spartans seem set to batten down the hatches and play a knock-down, drag out defensive epic.
The Cotton Bowl Classic is notable for it being a match-up between Alabama’s brilliant head coach Nick Saban and Mark Dantonio of Michigan State, who was defensive coordinator under Saban at Michigan State, and took over as head coach when Saban departed. Since then, Dantonio has elevated a program often viewed as an afterthought in Michigan compared to the historically successful Michigan Wolverine program.
In the last few years, though, it’s been the other way around, with Michigan State capturing Big Ten and Rose Bowl titles whilst the Wolverines are only just venturing out of the college football wilderness, where they’ve languished for the best part of the last decade. Dantonio’s team are the dominant one in Michigan, and have a chance to advance to their first National Championship game with a win in Dallas.
That win won’t come easily. Not against a Saban-coached Alabama squad that has been the gold standard in America for so long. The Tide were humbled by a Big Ten opponent – Ohio State – in a semi-final last year, and will be keen to avoid a repeat. Yet they will find it tough going against a very good Michigan State defense, which has been plagued by injury this season, but still managed to throttle Ohio State’s JT Barrett and Ezekiel Elliott in late November to hand the Buckeyes their first loss of the year.
Watching Alabama’s star running back/Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry go against the Michigan State front seven is going to be fascinating. For mine, it’s one of two areas where the game will be won or lost. If the Spartan defense can’t limit Henry’s effectiveness – a tall order, I know – then MSU are going to find themselves in a world of trouble. Somehow, the Sparty defenders need to stop Henry and also avoid Tide quarterback Jake Coker from making too many big plays to receiver Calvin Ridley in the passing game. Coker has proven to be adept at making plays with his feet, too. MSU’s defensive unit is going to be stretched close to breaking point for long stretches in this one.
The other key area is this game is the performance and health of Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook. When Cook, a veteran at the controls of the Spartan offense, is healthy, I feel he can match wits with an Alabama defense that’s number one in pretty much every statistical indicator you can think of – and probably a few more, too – but if Cook, who missed that epic victory over Ohio State and looked a little less than his usual, healthy self in the Big Ten championship game against Iowa.
Simply put, Michigan State need their quarterback to be completely able to make every play asked of him or else the Spartan run game is going to be their only real avenue of offensive output, and in that situation, there’s little doubt that the Tide defense will swallow them up.
Cook needs to find veteran receiver Aaron Burbridge to ensure Alabama doesn’t stack the box, thus overwhelming Michigan State’s talented but injury-ravaged offensive line, and their dependable running back L.J. Scott.
If the Spartans are to have any chance of causing the upset – a bigger one than Oklahoma getting past Clemson, for mine – their offense needs to be completely in sync, scoring six rather than three, and holding the football for as long as possible. A few drives of twenty-two plays, as they produced to close out the Big Ten Championship Game against Iowa, would really help. Alabama can’t hurt the Spartans if Coker and co. are sitting on the sidelines.
Prediction: I just don’t think Michigan State can match Alabama stride for stride over the course of sixty minutes. The Tide will win by about ten points and advance to give the winner of Clemson/Oklahoma more than a few issues.
Join The Roar for live blog coverage of the 2015 Cotton Bowl Classic, the second national semi-final, on New Year’s Day from Midday AEDT
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