Super Bowl 50 Preview

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After sixteen weeks of the regular season, three weeks of playoffs, and another week to think about things, we’re down to the final game of the National Football League season, Super Bowl 50.

On Sunday afternoon at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California, home of the San Francisco 49ers, old meets new in a clash to determine the competition’s fiftieth winner as the American Football Conference champion 12-4 Denver Broncos clash with the National Football Conference champion 15-1 Carolina Panthers.

It’s hard to escape the narrative of this one – old versus new. The Broncos have legendary quarterback Peyton Manning, likely making the last start in a glittering career that, despite his stellar, Hall of Fame-type numbers, has just one Super Bowl ring. Peyton is the old, and Carolina quarterback, Cam Newton is the new.

The differences between the two men could not be starker. Whereas Manning is fairly reserved, happy to let his football do the talking, Newton has been the subject of controversy all year, most of it aimed at the way he celebrates. One thing should not be doubted: Newton can play. He’ll be the NFL’s Most Valuable Player, probably winning it by a large margin, too, and may just back that award up with a Super Bowl ring, completing the rarely-achieved double of an NCAA National Championship title and an NFL championship ring.

There are plenty who’d love to see Manning ride off into the sunset with a second Super Bowl ring. You can count me amongst that number, but, unfortunately, sport rarely provides such dream finales. More often, it’s the opposite, and, as much as I’d love to tell you that Manning and the Broncos are going to win on Sunday, I’m leaning the other way.

Yes, Denver’s defense is very good. Point of fact, they’re the very best there is in the National Football League at the moment in any major statistical indicator you care to mention, and it’s been a pleasure watching them work.

The pass rush, led by Von Miller, unstoppable two weeks ago against the New England Patriots, is about as good as there is, and it’s backed up by an experienced secondary, anchored by Pro Bowl selections Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr. Denver’s message to opposing quarterbacks is clear: throw on these two at your own peril.

Two weeks ago in the AFC Championship victory over New England, Miller and his cohorts spent more time in the Patriot backfield than any of Bill Belichick’s running backs did. The protection – if you can even call it that – for quarterback Tom Brady was about as porous as anything in recent memory. I can’t recall a time where Brady was hit more. When he wasn’t hit, he was hurried and pressured, and that contributed to a pair of turnovers, and the least poised performance from Brady that we’ve seen in a while.

If Denver is to have any hope of winning, their pass rush will need to replicate that success against a Carolina offensive line that is far better than the injury-riddled one New England were able to put on the field in Denver a fortnight ago. I just don’t see them having such an easy time of it against Carolina’s front five.

There’s no doubt that the Denver defense is very good, and, yes, they’ve shut down a long list of good quarterbacks this season – Brady, Phillip Rivers, and Aaron Rodgers to name just a few – but they’re yet to have faced a multi-dimensional threat like Newton.

Don’t be fooled by the fact that he doesn’t have any real star wide receivers (apologies to Ted Ginn Jr. and co) or a hugely-productive running back (apologies to Jonathan Stewart) because Newton doesn’t seem to need anyone to propel the NFL’s highest-scoring offense – at more than 31 points per game – to great heights. Think he’s worried about taking on the NFL’s best defense? Probably not after routing Arizona (the fifth best) and Seattle (the second-best) in their last two playoff games.

Newton is clearly dangerous throwing the football, and has superstar tight end Greg Olsen to target, but where he really burns teams is with his legs. A broken play is arguably where Newton is at his most dangerous, improvising and freewheeling. He’s shown an innate ability to find the end zone, scoring ten rushing touchdowns in the regular season and two more in the NFC Championship Game.

Crucially, and unlike New England, Carolina has a good offensive line with which to combat the Denver rush. If they can give Newtown time to find targets like Olson, Ginn, ‘Philly’ Brown and big-bodied former Michigan Wolverine Devin Funchess. Or, he can keep the football himself, and that’s another wrinkle that, you’d think, will really stretch that Bronco defense.

In the past, we’ve seen Peyton Manning drag bad Indianapolis Colts defensive units to AFC Championship Games and Super Bowl contests because he’s been so offensively potent. This year, it’s been the opposite. The Denver offense hasn’t exactly set the world on fire. If you’ve kept an eye on the Broncos this year, you’ll know that Manning was benched midseason for Brock Osweiler before making a comeback for the playoffs. Neither guy has been great, and turnovers have been a major problem.

The AFC Championship Game showed us glimpses of the Peyton Manning of old. Just glimpses, mind you. His two touchdown throws to Owen Daniels were sensational, but for every good pass there seemed to be an under-thrown one, raising yet more questions about his arm strength.

I’m wondering if Manning hasn’t played his Super Bowl two weeks early in beating Brady and the Patriots. With no run game to speak of, Denver’s offense is on Manning’s shoulders and I’m not sure that he can shoulder the load. Five years ago? No worries. This Sunday? I can’t see it happening, unfortunately.

Carolina, whose defense, led by superstar linebacker, Luke Kuechly, has allowed less than sixty-five rushing yards per game these playoffs, forced seven turnovers against Carolina in the NFC Championship Game, reminds me plenty of the Seattle squad who dominated the Super Bowl two years ago, routing – yep, you guessed it – Manning and the Broncos.

Prediction: the Panthers defense forces multiple Manning turnovers, gifting Cam Newton too many short fields and wins 30-14.