NCAA Football: Championship Weekend Preview

Rivalry Weekend over Thanksgiving was great. Championship Weekend on the first weekend of December is going to be even better. Here's my preview:

PAC-10 Civil War: #13 Oregon State vs. #7 Oregon

Wow, this is a heck of a game to open the weekend. While it's not a championship game per se, it may as well be. The winner's going to smell the roses in Pasadena on New Year's Day, vs. Ohio State. Whoever wins this game, you'd back in to beat the Buckeyes and continue a New Year's Day tradition begun by USC a few years back: not camping out along the Rose Parade route, but being a PAC-10o team and pounding on a Big Ten opponent. Ask Penn State or Michigan or Illinois what it's like.

As for this game, it's probably going to come down to which defense comes up with a key stop late in the game. These two teams can - and are - going to blast up and down the field and score a lot of points. That's how the Ducks and Beavers do things. As much as the game will be about scoring, the end result comes down to who can make a stop late. Either that, or it'll be one of those "last team with the ball wins" affairs. This is almost too close to call. I'm tempted to pick the Beavers to return the favour and dump Oregon out of the Rose Bowl as Oregon dumped Oregon State out a year ago. But Autzen Stadium will push the Ducks across the line - just. It's going to be a cracker of a game. Ducks by 7.

MAC Championship Game: Central Michigan vs. Ohio

There's a superstar QB in the Mid-American Conference. His name is Dan LeFevour (257/362 for 2788 yards, 25 TD throws 5 INTs & 650 rushing yards and 14 TDs on 157 carries) and he's the guy who basically accounts for 70% of the CMU Chippewas offense. He runs and throws. He's got a nice set of wheels and a strong arm. Add to that two wonderful wide receivers in Bryan Anderson and Antonio Brown (who also leads the NCAA in kick- and punt-return yards and TD) and a classy running back in Bryan Schroeder.

The Ohio defense will be hard pressed to stop this offense. Even if they stack the box against the run, LeFevour can beat you with his arm, and with targets like Anderson and Brown breaking loose down the sideline, it might be a long night for the Bobcat defense. Ohio QB Theo Scott isn't a slouch when it comes to getting the football down the field, but he'll find himself under immense pressure from a talented Chippewa front line, and a core group of fast linebackers led by outstanding senior Nick Bellore, who's looked like a one-man team during some games this year. If Ohio can't establish the run, they're gone. The Chips should get it done in what is basically a home game at Ford Field in Detroit, MI. Chippewas by 14.

Big East Decider: #5 Cincinnati vs. #14 Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh will be looking to rebound after a disappointing loss to their hated rivals Pittsburgh in last week's Backyard Brawl game, but they'll be running into a tough #5 Cincinnati team, with star QB Tony Pike back under centre and back to the form he had before his mid-season injury. Whoever wins this game is Big East Champion and will likely fill an Orange Bowl berth down at Land Shark Stadium in Miami. Make no mistake, these are the two best teams in the Big East and it seems fitting that they meet on the last Saturday of the regular season. Momentum is with the Bearcats. They'll finish off what's been an awesome season - maybe their last with current head coach, if the Brian Kelly to Notre Dame rumours become fact. Cincy goes into Heinz Field and wins by 14.

C-USA Championship Game: East Carolina vs. #18 Houston

We know the story of Houston. It's a little like Hawaii of 2007. They have a gun QB in Case Keenum whose numbers are eye-popping to say the very least, but their defense sucks. I am positive that Keenum (412/584 for 4922 yards & 38 TDs) would be further into the Heisman race if his D didn't let him down in bad places. You can't lose to UCF and expect to get much love in New York City when it's Heisman time. Sad but true. Anyway, here the Cougars are up against the East Carolina Pirates who aren't ranked but might cause problems for Houston and Case Keenum. I don't think Skip Holtz (yes, son of Lou) and his team can completely shut down Keenum, so if the Cougar defense can get a couple of stops to at least partially help Keenum go about winning the football game, it'll be another day of astronomical numbers for a man who should get a better look-in for the Heisman next year. Cougars by 14.

SEC Championship Game: #1 Florida vs. #2 Alabama

This is what it's all about. Some say this is the best conference in the country, other's say it sucks. I'm saying that while the SEC is massively over hyped - aside from these two teams and occasionally LSU - it's been a dreary year for SEC football. That said, it's pretty damn good when the two top teams in the nation play off against one another for the conference title. Obviously, the National Championship implications here are huge. Win and you're going to Pasadena. Lose and it's probably the Sugar Bowl and TCU - remember what happened to Alabama after losing the SEC Championship Game last year...they played another MWC opponent (Utah) and got pounded.

This should be a game for the ages and it was looking very much like that a week ago, before Alabama almost got shocked by Auburn in the Iron Bowl. If the same 'Bama team turns up to Atlanta, Florida will romp home. If the team that's steamrolled everyone behind stud RB Mark Ingram shows up, it'll be an epic. The Florida defense, minus star DE Carlos Dunlap who was arrested this week is better than it was last year. The absence of Dunlap will be welcome news for Alabama QB Greg McElroy. Whatever else happens, McElroy and Ingram are going to have to have the games of their lives to beat Florida. That Gator pass rush is intense and will remain that way, because Urban Meyer has good players three deep.

Tim Tebow might have had a quiet year, but he has a history of getting up for the big games. Make no mistake, this is the biggest of them all. He will be big, and Florida will move the ball against the Crimson Tide D. The key question is how well will 'Bama move the ball against a brilliant Gator defense. The offensive success of Alabama decides who wins the game. If the Gators can get on top early and force turnovers, they'll be headed for Pasadena, no problems. Gators by 7 in an epic.

Big Twelve Championship Game: #3 Texas vs. #21 Nebraska

The game between the Longhorns and Texas A&M on Thanksgiving night was a cracker. UT eventually got up 49-39, but there was very little defense played and Aggies QB provided Nebraska (as well as Florida and Alabama) with a pretty good roadmap on how to beat Colt McCoy and the Longhorns.

The question is, does Nebraska have the talent on the field to pull off the upset? Possibly. It all starts up front with first-rounded - Top Ten - draft pick Ndamukong Suh. If the big fella with speed like you wouldn't believe can get pressure on McCoy and make life difficult in the pocket for him, weapons like Jordan Shipley will go unused. This game hinges on defense. if Nebraska can slow Texas down, and convert their own opportunities when they get the ball back, they could pull an upset. Remember, the Longhorns have been less than impressive a few times this year and Bo Pelini sure as heck knows how to coach defense. Still, I think the 'Horns eek it out and head to Pasadena to face Tebow and Florida - just the National Championship match-up everyone seems to have wanted since the spring. Texas by 10.

ACC Championship Game: #25 Clemson vs. #12 Georgia Tech

Honestly, it's damned hard to get excited about this game. Both teams were extremely underwhelming last week, losing to teams that they should never have lost to. I watched Clemson get killed by South Carolina (despite the best efforts of Heisman hopeful CJ Spiller) and thought, Wow, Tech's going to kill them next week. Then Tech loses to Georgia, who are horrible this year...and it's like, who really cares now? The winner is likely going to get blown out by Cincy or Pitt. And if not, it'll be as dreary as last year's ACC/Big East Orange Bowl game was. I think CJ Spiller's offensive fireworks will push Clemson over the edge. Tigers by 3.