There is a hungry pack forming, and it's getting hungrier as every week falls by the wayside. That's right, the stretch run to the 2011 AFL Finals Series is here, and there are a bunch of teams - Essendon, St Kilda, and the Western Bulldogs to name just three - who are looking to capitalise on a loss by the teams above them, those teams just in, precariously, the top eight.
After a maddeningly inconsistent season, the Swans are one of those teams, in the frame to play finals football for the time being, but definitely not a certainty, not in what's been a wild and largely unpredictable season thus far. In fact, you might say that the only predictable thing about the 2011 Toyota AFL Premiership Season has been it's unpredictability.
So, with more teams queuing to play finals than will be able to play finals, you can pretty much bet that Bomber, Saints and Doggies fans will be cheering on Fremantle in tomorrow afternoon's 6th vs. 7th clash at what will probably be a somewhat wet Sydney Cricket Ground. This is a game that the Swans MUST have if they are going to have any hope of making a blip on the radar come finals. We've unfortunately shown that beating Top Four teams is difficult, but beating Fremantle are not in that ilk. They've had just as much of an up-and-down season as the Swans have, and after a long flight across from Perth, it's important for the red-and-whites to use their mastery of the tight confines of the SCG to record a victory.
It won't be an easy win. In fact, in the greasy conditions forecast, I'm predicting something of an arm wrestle, one that hopefully the Swans can get the better of. Jump on top early, keep Dockers superstar Matthew Pavlich down - I'd like to see Goodes on Pavlich, given that Pav will drift between the midfield and the forward line, as Goodesy also tends to do on most days, and play hard, contested football, the sort of football that the AFL probably thinks is ugly, but used to win us the big, close, tough contests. You know, like this one might turn out to be.
Most importantly of all? Dominate the ruck. Really assert our authority and power here. Big Mummy should be free to rule the roost in the ruck this week thanks to the slice of luck (not that I wish injury on any player...well, okay, maybe a few Pies players) that sees giant Fremantle ruckman Aaron Sandilands on the sideline, perhaps indefinitely. Mumford is probably the best ruckman going around at the moment. His domination in the ruck, without having to combat the Man Mountain, should help. If he can get first use of the football for our midfield, it sets so much up.
The disturbing thing is our record in the wet this year. Three of our worst losses this season - Carlton, Geelong, Adelaide - have come when the heavens have opened. Our home record isn't much to speak of, either. So a home game in the wet? It makes the worry set in early, doesn't it? Of course, it wouldn't be Swans football without a bit of worry. It only makes the elation of victory that much more pronounced.
The Swans have brought big Jesse White into the team for tomorrow's game, replacing Matt Spangher, who was omitted with a hamstring injury - a real shame after a good Swans debut for the ex-Eagle, and Craig Bird, who was a late withdrawal from the team that won by 70 points against the Gold Coast last Saturday. Last week's sub, Jarred Moore, is an emergency along with Trent Dennis-Lane and Nathan Gordon.
Clearly, the Dockers are expecting a physical contest. They've brought four tough nuts, Michael Barlow, Kepler Bradley, Adam McPhee and Clancee Pearce into the 25-man squad, with a final team to be named tomorrow. They will want to combat the Swans toughness with some of their own, and a guy like Adam McPhee, the Nick Riewoldt lookalike, is perfect for that. The good news for Swans fans is that the Dockers have only one once at the SCG since 1996. The bad news? It was in Round Nine last year.
This is a massive game. Dan Hannebery said it, and I'm saying it, too. Season-defining, even. It's so big that I'm drafting in some international support for the Swans. A friend of mine is out from Chicago, IL, and tomorrow she'll get to experience Swans football at the SCG from the sixth row. I hope it's a winning experience.
Fearless Prediction: Swans by one goal (and we'll all go home feeling like the game's taken ten years from our life)
Play Bloods football, Swans!
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