Monday, August 29, 2011

NCAA Football 2011: Week One Preview (Part One)

After the most tumultuous off-season in recent memory, and one that the NCAA will want to forget as quickly as possible, college football is back for Season 2011.

It's been a long nine months since the Tostitos BCS National Championship Game ended with Auburn as National Champions, but the opening weekend of the new season provides some very intriguing games. Here is my pick of that litter:

Akron at Ohio State:

Perhaps not the most exciting game of the opening weekend in terms of the two teams on the field, but certainly an interesting one for all the coverage around the game.

This one at the Horseshoe in Columbus is notable, perhaps, for who isn't there as opposed to who is. Of course, I’m talking about former OSU head coach Jim Tressel and star QB Terrelle Pryor, both of whom endured rather ignominious exits from Columbus during a tumultuous summer, where rampart allegations of multi-year NCAA infractions have taken the gloss off the Buckeye’s win in the Sugar Bowl vs. Arkansas, a win featuring the now-absent pair of Tressel and Pryor. The school has vacated all of it's wins from Season 2010, including in the Sugar Bowl vs. Arkansas and against rival Michigan. And there may be further sanctions to come, at the uncertain and wild discretion of the NCAA.

This will be the coaching debut for interim head coach Luke Fickell, and despite not having Pryor under centre and another four starters serving suspensions as a result of tattoo parlour/memorabilia infractions that came to light in the lead-up to the Sugar Bowl this year, it should be a W for the former Buckeye player. It’s heading down the track where the Buckeyes might struggle, especially with Nebraska and Wisconsin looking pretty sharp.

Up top in the commentary box, ESPN debuts their new broadcast team of Dave Pasch, Chris Spielman and former University of Florida head coach Urban Meyer, the blockbuster addition to the Worldwide Leader’s team for Season 2011. It just so happens that Meyer, an Ohio native, is hot favourite – or at least a very warm favourite – to be the new coach at Ohio State next year.


There’s plenty going on, both on the field and in the commentary booth. Ohio State should get their new post-Tressel/Pryor era off to a good start with an easy win here.

Winner: Ohio State

Boise State vs. Georgia (Atlanta, GA):

The other big game on opening weekend, This time last year, it was heroics from QB Kellen Moore as Boise State beat Virginia Tech at the death in Washington DC, and this season, they begin non-conference play in a neutral venue, the Georgia Dome, for the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game.

Were it not for kicker Kyle Brotzman’s serious case of the yips, and the Boise State Broncos almost certainly would’ve been playing in a BCS Bowl Game, but Nevada’s famous victory on Black Friday in Reno ultimately ended what had been such a promising season for the team from the Smurf Turf in Treasure Valley. Even a victory against fellow BCS buster hopeful Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl was hollow.

Now, their chance for redemption. Boise are returning a large chunk of both the offensive and defensive units that came so close last year. Of course, the returnees are led by the brilliant quarterback Moore, who is almost certain to be a serious Heisman contender now that the award is once again open to those who, unlike Cam Newton, are mere mortals on the football field.

Impressive RB Doug Martin returns, as do 12 other starters from a year ago. Chris Petersen's team will be one of the most explosive in the country, on both sides of the ball. There's strength, power and experience in all three phases, really. This match-up vs. Georgia is a wonderful start to Boise’s campaign, a national television spotlight, a traditional SEC power, and a chance to show everyone that they’re as hungry as ever. They need big scalps like Georgia to keep their BCS busting hopes alive.

There's no doubt that Georgia were disappointing last year, offensively stagnant and fielding one of the most porous defenses in the country. This year, they’ll be without last year’s best player, their all-world WR AJ Green who is now in the NFL. To counter that, Georgia features probably the premiere returning SEC quarterback in Aaron Murray. Even though UGA was mostly horrible last year, Murray's performances were one bright spot when most everything else was bleak. Their 10-6 loss to Central Florida in the Liberty Bowl hurt big time.

This is a big year for head coach Mark Richt, who endured a season of fans calling for his head, a scapegoat for a bad season. I'm personally surprised that he remains in charge. Suffice to say, they won't stomach consecutive sour campaigns in Athens, so the ‘Dawgs need a big one to keep the critics at bay. That means SEC wins and challenging for an SEC East title. Of course, a BCS Bowl appearance would help greatly. A good start would be beating Boise State on Murray's solid arm, but it’s unlikely, even with what figures to be a sizeable home field advantage.


Winner: Boise State

LSU vs. Oregon (Dallas, TX)

Without doubt, the most eagerly-anticipated game of the opening weekend. For the Ducks and the Tigers, it's a test of their national championship credentials right off the bat, in the football palace that is Cowboys Stadium. Both teams have been haunted by scandal during spring and summer. Oregon are being investigated for alleged improper payments to recruiting specialists and LSU have recently been rocked by a police investigation into four players and their roles in an altercation in a Baton Rouge bar. Now, QB Jordan Jefferson's apartment has reportedly been searched as a part of said investigation. Football cannot come quickly enough for either program.

It's hard to know exactly how badly a loss would affect the season for either team, given that it would be a first week loss - plenty of time to rebound - against quality opposition. Both Oregon and LSU will play tough conference schedules, and could yet gain entrance to a BCS bowl by winning their conference. At any rate, a one-loss Oregon or LSU team is still an attractive proposition for most bowl committees. Especially if that loss came against a team who continued to win and finished inside the Top 5 in the BCS rankings.

I could definitely see a one-loss LSU team winning the SEC and playing for the National Championship. But could Oregon lose to LSU, win the Pac-12 and play in the big game for all the marbles? Perhaps not. The Pac-12 doesn't quite have the same reputation for tough football as the SEC does and there is the added disadvantage of many of Oregon's games being played late night on the east coast, with less eyeballs watching, including those whose votes help to formulate the rankings.

For mine, the jury is out on LSU. Their defence is solid, but I'm yet to be convinced by Jordan Jefferson at QB. Last year certainly didn't settle anything. There were times when he looked completely at sea. He needs a complete season and a flashy one to silence the doubters. His passing needs to improve to where it's as good - or better - than his running game. The great variable is the new offensive play-caller, line coach Greg Studrawa who takes over from Steve Kragthorpe who is battling Parkinson's Disease. Time will tell if the pro-style offense that Kragthorpe has prepared will suit Jefferson.

The unit that wins this football game might well be the LSU defence. If it can stop Oregon's high-octane offense, led by duel-threat QB Darron Thomas and RBs LaMichael James and Kenyon Barner, and then give it's own offense - helmed by Jefferson, unless the Baton Rouge PD have something to say; Jarrett Lee is the back-up - good field position, they might pull it off with a couple of good drives at key times in the contest. The defensive key might be returning linebacker Ryan Baker, fresh of an 87-tackle season. If he can steady things in the middle of the field, the Bayou Bengals might win. It's all about stopping the quick-strike Oregon offense. Can it be done effectively? Only time will tell. One thing's for sure, it'll be an entertaining football game and a great way to start the season.

Winner: Too close to tell

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