Sunday, December 9, 2012

2012-13 NCAA College Football Bowl Preview - Ranking the Bowls 1-35

There are some great games, some okay games, some terrible games and some games that make you ask, "Who really cares?" I've gone over the 2012-13 Bowl match-ups with a fine-toothed comb, and ranked them, 1-35 in order of what I consider to be best to worst...

1. Discover BCS National Championship: No. 1 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Alabama

The most important game of the season, and the most intriguing. So many questions: can Notre Dame's offense match it with Alabama's defense. Can the Irish defense get the better of AJ McCarron and the Tide offense? Will SEC haters who also hate Notre Dame support 'Bama? It's a big chance for the SEC to cement themselves as by far and away the best conference in college football - if anyone was previously in any doubt - but as big a chance for a Notre Dame program everyone had branded as lost in the old world of college football to prove that an independent program can match it with the big boys and their conference alignments. If Alabama's defense can shut down Notre Dame, and give McCarron workable field position, it should be enough. Prediction: Alabama.

2. Rose Bowl Game Presented by Vizio - Wisconsin vs. No. 6 Stanford

With Barry Alvarez back on the sidelines following Brett Bielema's sudden departure for Arkansas and the SEC, there's another storyline to add to what's already an intriguing game. The 5-loss Badgers came out in the Big Ten Championship with a stunning new cache of plays, sure to give Stanford's coaching staff the heebie-jeebies up until New Year's Day, and bludgeoned Nebraska on the ground and on the scoreboard. Stanford are a similar team, with their running game taking centre stage. Wisconsin's defense, now healthy, is back. This could be a classic game. Prediction: Stanford.

3. Discover Orange Bowl - No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 6 Kansas State

The BCS National Championship Game up until a few weeks ago - that inexplicable November night where the Wildcats and Ducks lost within a few minutes of each other - and it's now a pretty interesting Orange Bowl. In a few words: old-school vs. new-school. Can K-State do what few others have done this year and slow down Oregon's offense? What about Collin Klein and the Wildcat offense? You figure they can put up a few points on that Ducks D, which hasn't been great. Coaching match-up between Snyder and Kelly will be one to watch! Prediction: Oregon.

4.  AT&T Cotton Bowl - No. 11 Oklahoma vs. No. 9 Texas A&M

Admittedly unlucky to miss out on a BCS Bowl, Oklahoma find themselves in a potential shoot-out against Johnny Football and the surprising Texas A&M Aggies. Both teams can move the football and score points at will. Defensive stops might be few and far between. Manziel figures to have an epic game, and Landry Jones can do the same for the Sooners. A lot depends on A&M's defense, for mine. If they play like they did in Tuscaloosa against Alabama, this might not be close. It should, however, be wildly entertaining! Prediction: Texas A&M.

5.  Valero Alamo Bowl - No. 18 Texas vs. No. 15 Oregon State

Two teams who looked brilliant early, but faded a little down the stretch. Who knows who'll start at QB for Texas? It seems like that position's been a revolving door lately and their defense has been sieve-like. Oregon State's Mike Riley had to be right up there in contention for Coach of the Year for his transformation of the program in Corvallis. It was an impressive season even with quarterback injuries, though their Civil War loss to in-state rivals Oregon must be leaving a bitter taste. Prediction: Oregon State.

6. Capital One Bowl - No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 12 Nebraska

Nebraska got smacked in the mouth by a resurgent Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship - a result no one saw coming - and Georgia were about five yards short of a berth in the BCS National Championship Game. Their last start will be on the minds of both these teams. Nebraska need QB Taylor Martinez to not make some of the decisions he made in the Big Ten Championship, and, for Georgia, QB Aaron Murray had perhaps the game of his career and was beaten only by a few ticks of the clock. The winner of this game will be the team who gets up off the carpet the quickest. Prediction: Georgia.

7. Outback Bowl - No. 10 South Carolina vs. No. 19 Michigan

The Big Ten haven't exactly distinguished themselves in previous match-ups against the SEC and how Michigan go against Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks depends, largely, on how Denard Robinson is feeling. The nerve injury that's prevented him from throwing over the last month (and caused him to miss two games) might be healed, which makes him lobbing passes from a running back slot with QB Devin Gardner calling signals, a serious threat, aside from the serious threat that Gardner's arm poses. South Carolina has a lot to game plan for. Prediction: Michigan.

8. Chick-fil-A Bowl - No. 7 Louisiana State vs. No. 14 Clemson

LSU's loss to Alabama earlier in the year knocked them out of a running for a BCS Bowl, and instead get Dabo Swinney's Tigers from the ACC on New Year's Eve in Atlanta. Going over it, there are a couple of similarities between these two football teams: in particular, their mascots and nickname for their home ground. But the class is different, ACC vs. SEC. As many offensive weapons as Clemson has, they're going up against a very good LSU defense, which I expect will subdue Swinney's stars and set up the offense for a reasonably comfortable win. Prediction: LSU.

9. Allstate Sugar Bowl - No. 3 Florida vs. No. 21 Louisville 

A great season for Florida, who rightly earn their BCS spot, against a Louisville team who somehow managed to rally from a 14-3 deficit with a QB, Teddy Bridgewater, who was doubly hobbled - wrist and ankle injuries - and yet still managed to beat Rutgers in the de facto Big East Championship Game, bringing the program back to some level of national respect under Charlie Strong, a defensive coordinator at Florida under Urban Meyer. Yet, the Cardinals aren't in the same league as Florida, whose defense has stood up well against a touch SEC schedule. Will Muschamp has done a great job bringing Florida back to where it was under Urban Meyer, and it should continue, and perhaps in blow-out fashion if Bridgewater isn't 100% healthy. Prediction: Florida.

10.  Bridgeport Education Holiday Bowl - Baylor vs. No. 16 UCLA

Baylor's offense is amazing. Baylor's defense, except for one game against Kansas State, has been horrible. UCLA's got a pretty good offense, too, led by QB Brett Hundley and RB Johnathan Franklin, but first-year head coach Jim Mora is going to have his hands full getting the Bruins ready for the ultra high-powered Baylor offense, led by QB Nick Florence. Sure, he's no RGIII, but he can move the football and is a duel threat to score. I see this being the sort of game where the team who handles the football last gets the win. Defensive stops of any variety will be huge. Prediction: Baylor.

11. Tostitos Fiesta Bowl - No. 15 Northern Illinois vs. No. 13 Florida State

Many people think Oklahoma should be here rather than a one-loss - to a pretty bad Iowa team, too - Northern Illinois Huskies, but NIU get the ACC champion Seminoles, a first BCS bowl berth for a team from the Mid American Conference. FSU will probably be happier with this match-up, which, in my book, gives them a better shot at a Fiesta Bowl championship than a game against the Sooners might've. It could get ugly if NIU don't really come to play. Prediction: Florida State

12.  MAACO Las Vegas Bowl - No. 20 Boise State vs. Washington

Quietly in a rebuilding year of sorts, Boise State rolled to a 10-2 season and a Mountain West Conference Championship, and head to Las Vegas for the third year running. Washington, meanwhile, have some good wins (Oregon State, Stanford...) and some bad losses in a fluctuating season. At times, they've looked good. At other times, not so much. They like to run the ball, and Boise State's run defense has been stout all year. And now, a season in, QB Joe Southwick has that Bronco offense rolling nicely. Prediction: Boise State.

13.  GoDaddy.com - No. 25 Kent State vs. Arkansas State 

A win in the MAC Championship Game might have sent Kent State to the Fiesta Bowl rather than Northern Illinois - but that probably still wouldn't have made anyone happy. Instead, the then-undefeated team who shocked Rutgers halfway through the season heads to the GoDaddy.com Bowl against Arkansas State, whose head coach Gus Malzahn was just hired to replace his former boss, Gene Chizik, at Auburn. Teams who lose their coach before Bowl games generally have a bad record in the post-season. One thing's for sure: there will be a lot of offense here, and it should be entertaining. Prediction: Kent State.

14.  New Era Pinstripe Bowl - Syracuse vs. West Virginia

This one has all the makings of a shoot-out. West Virginia's offense has been humming all year, but their defense has been epically bad since the get-go, and the reason for their 5-game losing streak rests wholly and solely on a lack of defensive stops. For Syracuse, QB Ryan Nassib has the arm and the weapons to trouble a porous WVU unit, and Mountaineers QB Geno Smith has shown that he and his high-powered offense can score on anyone. A few defensive stops either way from teams who don't do much defense might decide this one. It'll be high scoring, and it'll be close. Prediction: West Virginia.

15. Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl - Texas Christian vs. Michigan State 

TCU had a good debut season in the Big XII. Michigan State were very disappointing, even in a rebuilding year, in the Big Ten. Statistically, both teams had their worst season in a handful of years. It might be a close game. As for who win's, it's a bit of a toss-up. Prediction: Texas Christian (just).

16. Gildan New Mexico - Arizona vs. Nevada

Quietly, Rich Rodriguez has put together a reasonable offensive season. His Wildcat team features the nation's number-one ranked running back, Ka'Deem Carey. It also features a bad defense. Almost as bad as what RichRod had on the field when he coached Michigan, and worse than Nevada's defense. Lots of points here, in what could be an explosive one to open the 2012-13 Bowl season. Prediction: Arizona.

17. Russell Athletic Bowl - Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech

Rutgers were a loss away from a BCS Bowl and Virginia Tech had their worst season in recent memory, putting some pressure on long-time head coach Frank Beamer. A solid running game and opportunistic defense have been hallmarks of the Scarlet Knights season. There's little good to be said for a Hokies outfit who struggled gainfully to beat lowly Duke. Prediction: Rutgers.

18. Gator Bowl - Mississippi State vs. No. 22 Northwestern

Resurgent season for Pat Fitzgerald's Wildcats. Good start to the season for Mississippi State, 7-0, which fell away late. winning just one of their last five. The ground-based offense that's led Northwestern to a 9-3 record should get the job done against a still-reeling MSU team. Prediction: Northwestern.

19. Music City Bowl - North Carolina State vs. Vanderbilt 

Aside from a win against Florida State, North Carolina were devoid of signature victories and lost some games they shouldn't have. That cost their head coach, Tom O'Brien, his job. On the flip side, Vanderbilt have had an above-average season, and will look to close it out with a Bowl win. Prediction: Vanderbilt.

20. Independence - Ohio vs. Louisiana-Monroe

Two 8-4 teams meet in Shreveport, Louisiana. For Louisiana-Monroe, who announced themselves on the college football scene with a then-unthinkable upset of Arkansas, play in their first Bowl game in program history. Many thought Ohio might go undefeated after beating Penn State early, but the Bobcats, whose marching band did a wonderful interpretation of 'Gangnam Style' that scored YouTube fame, had a string of four bad, double-digit losses down the stretch and are reeling. Prediction: Louisiana-Monroe.

21. Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Utah State vs. Toledo

Solid season for Utah State, led by QB Chuckie Keaton, who ended the regular season ranked and lost only twice, once to hated in-state rival Brigham Young and once to Rose Bowl Game-bound Wisconsin, and both losses were for a total of five points. USU were one of the first teams to accept a Bowl bid, and will play on the Blue Turf of Boise State University against a Toledo team who stumbled late, but whose offense, like all other MACtion programs, is still dangerous. Prediction: Utah State.

22. Poinsettia Bowl - Brigham Young vs. San Diego State

A good season for the defensively-minded BYU Cougars, whose defense were responsible for a great many marks in the 'W' column. They face their old Mountain West Conference rivals San Diego State, who finished the season with a flourish out on the West Coast, winning their last seven games, and will be playing in front of their home fans. Prediction: San Diego State.

23. Liberty Bowl - Iowa State vs. Tulsa

The Cyclones were a disappointing 6-6 this year, and had no giant killing win like last year (vs. then-high flying Oklahoma State). They did, however, beat Tulsa in the opening game of the season, following which the Golden Hurricane put together a 10-3 season that culminated in a C-USA Championship. Prediction: Tulsa. 

24. Belk Bowl - Cincinnati vs. Duke

Cincinatti lost Butch Jones to Tennessee and hired Tommy Tuberville from Texas Tech and face a Blue Devils team who is playing in it's first Bowl game since 1994. Cincinnati's scoring defense has been their biggest asset this season, and face a Duke team who have lost four straight. Probably, make that five. Prediction: Cincinnati.

25. St Petersburg Bowl - Central Florida vs. Ball State


UCF come in after a tough overtime loss to Tulsa in the C-USA Championship Game and face a Ball State team on a six-game winning run, having started out a middling 3-3. Two teams with 9-win seasons should provide a reasonable contest. Prediction: Ball State.

26. New Orleans - East Carolina vs. Louisiana-Lafayette


Not a bad match-up - two 8-4 teams - but not a game that gets me particuarly excited either. And therein lies the problem with too many Bowl games, especially these pre-Christmas affairs. East Carolina won five of it's last six games. Louisiana-Lafayette won this game last year on a last-second field goal. Prediction: East Carolina.

27. Sun Bowl - USC vs. Georgia Tech

The Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas is the last place anyone expected USC to be playing a Bowl game. It was supposed to be the National Championship Game or bust.We all know what happened. Instead of Miami, the Trojans play Georgia Tech, who at 6-6 relied on a special waiver from the NCAA after losing in the ACC Championship, to get to the post-season. It probably won't be a thriller. Nor will it be particularly close. Prediction: USC.

28. Heart of Dallas Bowl - Purdue vs. Oklahoma State 

The least high-profile of all the New Year's Day Bowl games, tucked away on ESPNU. Oklahoma State seemed to cycle through a different quarterback each game, and Purdue's season wasn't as successful as many expected, leading to the dismissal of their coach, Danny Hope. Offense a-plenty in this one. Prediction: Oklahoma State.

29. Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl - Minnesota vs. Texas Tech 

6-6 Minnesota vs. 7-5 Texas Tech. The difference is, Tech played in a tougher conference, and will have something to prove after their coach Tommy Tuberville left for Cincinnati. The Red Raiders have a spectacular offense. If it's firing on all cylinders and QB Seth Doege limits his turnovers, watch out, Minnesota. Prediction: Texas Tech. 

30. Military Bowl - No. 24 San Jose State vs. Bowling Green 

Difficult match-up for San Jose State, who gave Stanford all they could handle earlier in the season. Bowling Green's 2012 hallmark has been defense. The Falcons are right up there nationally in two key indicators defensively: yards allowed and points allowed. It could be a struggle, this one, and a close game. Prediction: San Jose State.
 
31. Sheraton Hawaii Bowl - Southern Methodist vs. Fresno State

Fresno State grabbed a share of the Mountain West Conference title. SMU needed a season-finale win against Tulsa to get to 6-6 and a bowl game, on Christmas Eve in Hawaii. There are worse places to spend the holidays, but this contest isn't going to draw too many eyeballs away from the family and celebrations. Prediction: Fresno State.

32. Little Caesars Pizza Bowl - Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan


7-5 Western Kentucky against 6-6 Central Michigan in Detroit, Michigan the day after Christmas. Another game that most people will probably only watch if they're passed out on the couch after eating too much on Christmas and can't find the remote. A 3-6 start for CMU and an at-large bid from the NCAA to make up the Bowl field for 2012. Not a glowing indication of their team's talent this year. Prediction: Western Kentucky.

33. Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl - Navy vs. Arizona State

Navy's complicated spread-option offense is the sort that takes about a full month to really game-plan for. If Arizona State gets it right, the Midshipmen, who recorded another win vs. Army this year after a shocking start to the year, might be in trouble. Arizona State started fast and finished slow. A match-up of contradictory programs. Prediction: Arizona State.

35. Compass - Pittsburgh vs. Ole Miss

Two 6-6 teams sneaking into the post-season by the barest of margins, and now seeking to end with a winning record for their first-year head coach. Honestly, this game will barely rate a mention for anyone who isn't a Pitt or an Ole Miss fan. Another example of too many Bowl games. Prediction: Ole Miss.


34. Armed Forces Bowl - Rice vs. Air Force

Two more 6-6 teams in contest that many people won't bother about. Air Force makes a regular visit to this game - their fourth in six years - and Rice rarely travel for the holidays. This will be only their third Bowl appearance since 1961. Prediction: Air Force.


No comments:

Post a Comment