No. 23 Wisconsin @ No. 4 Ohio State
There’s a lot of uncertainty about the real quality of the conference, preseason rankings aside, because the first month of the season has shown us little but the ability of a lot of supposedly-talented Big Ten teams beating up on the likes of Florida A&M, who is in nobody’s list of football superpowers.
That’s why the Game of the Week this week is out of the Big Ten:
Coverage: Sunday September 29, 10.00 a.m. on ESPN2 & ESPN2-HD.
There’s so much to learn out of
this game. From the top: will Ohio State’s Heisman hopeful QB Braxton
Miller reclaim his starting spot from backup Kenny Guiton, who has been
playing out of his mind? Can the Buckeye defense, which really hasn’t been tested, stand up against the fleet of brilliant Wisconsin running backs?Can Wisconsin’s QB Joel Stave
make enough big throws to keep OSU off balance defensively and perhaps
exploit their weak secondary? Will either defense really have an impact
on this game?
Ohio State’s Quarterback(s)
You’d assume that Miller will
come back in as soon as he’s ready to go, because he’s a prodigious,
game-changing talent, but on how short a leash he’ll be on now that
Guiton’s proven to be red-hot, we don’t yet know.
It must be nice for Urban Meyer
to have such a wealth of talent at the key offensive position. Guiton’s
been a major revelation, a veteran senior who has never started a game
until this year. It seemed like Disaster Central when Miller went down,
but it hasn’t been anywhere near as bad as we first thought.
Wisconsin’s Running Back(s)
Wisconsin have perhaps the best
one-two-three set of backs in the country, led by the brilliant Melvin
Gordon. They are big, strong, agile, don’t seem to mind dragging
defenders with them…and are going to be hard to stop. I think they can
roll up yards against anyone in the Big Ten. That’s how good they are.
One thing that doesn’t exactly
work in their favour is the noted struggles that Wisconsin’s QB Joel
Stave has been having. More on this below, but, suffice to say he’s not a
major threat hurling the pigskin, so if Ohio State stack the box it’ll
be tougher to get yards. Wisconsin might have to get creative: run the
ball out to the boundaries; maybe a toss play or a pitch or something to
try and get these guys in space. Watch out, if they find it.
Joel Stave
I’ve barely seen the Badger
quarterback make a good throw all season, and he figures to be under a
stack more pressure this week than he’s seen so far. He needs to be
relied upon to make big throws at big times in games, and there’s not a
wealth of evidence suggesting he can do so.
Some of his attempts against
Purdue were cringe-worthy bad. But Ohio State’s secondary seems
vulnerable, and he might therefore be able to turn that to his
advantage. A few good throws deep, some play action stuff, that’s all
you need, just to try and make the defense respect both the run and the
throw. If Stave can air it out with success, getting guys like WR Jared
Abrederis into the game, the Buckeyes are going to have less personnel
to deal with stopping the run.
Defense
Ohio State’s defense hasn’t had
to do much of anything against their early opponents, which leaves us
not knowing a lot about their capabilities. Friends of mine who are Ohio
State fans are concerned about their secondary, which will be defending
the deep ball against a quarterback in Stave who hasn’t shown much
ability throwing it. Then there’s the run game to be combatted thirty or
forty plays this game.
And Wisconsin figure to have
their hands full stopping an Ohio State offense that — granted, against
inferior opposition — has been all sorts of unstoppable so far this
year. Even so, Guiton or Miller is plenty good enough to make big plays
against the best defense they’ll have seen in 2013. The duel threat
factor is what weighs big in my opinion. Ohio State have it, Wisconsin
don’t and it’s tough to stop.
In a game where defense will be at a premium, a turnover might be enormous.
Home Field Advantage
Never underestimate the home
crowd’s ability to sway the game. One hundred thousand Buckeye fans are
going to be falling out of their skins in this one. Ohio Stadium is one
of the great college environments. Saturday night there’ll be an
electric atmosphere under lights, with a national — international! —
television audience watching on. It’s going to be tough on the
Wisconsin offense when so many people are screaming their lungs out
whenever they’re on the field. It matters.
Who Wins?
If things go to plan, Ohio State
– though only just, I think. For mine, it comes down to what Wisconsin
can (and, also, can’t) do offensively. I don’t trust Stave to make
enough big plays at the business end of the game. Therefore, Ohio State
can lock down on the Badger running backs, and snuff Wisconsin out that
way. As for the Buckeyes when they have the ball, I figure Guiton or
Miller is going to move the football enough to eek out a win.
Buckeyes by seven.