Super Bowl 50 Preview

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After sixteen weeks of the regular season, three weeks of playoffs, and another week to think about things, we’re down to the final game of the National Football League season, Super Bowl 50.

On Sunday afternoon at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California, home of the San Francisco 49ers, old meets new in a clash to determine the competition’s fiftieth winner as the American Football Conference champion 12-4 Denver Broncos clash with the National Football Conference champion 15-1 Carolina Panthers.

It’s hard to escape the narrative of this one – old versus new. The Broncos have legendary quarterback Peyton Manning, likely making the last start in a glittering career that, despite his stellar, Hall of Fame-type numbers, has just one Super Bowl ring. Peyton is the old, and Carolina quarterback, Cam Newton is the new.

The differences between the two men could not be starker. Whereas Manning is fairly reserved, happy to let his football do the talking, Newton has been the subject of controversy all year, most of it aimed at the way he celebrates. One thing should not be doubted: Newton can play. He’ll be the NFL’s Most Valuable Player, probably winning it by a large margin, too, and may just back that award up with a Super Bowl ring, completing the rarely-achieved double of an NCAA National Championship title and an NFL championship ring.

There are plenty who’d love to see Manning ride off into the sunset with a second Super Bowl ring. You can count me amongst that number, but, unfortunately, sport rarely provides such dream finales. More often, it’s the opposite, and, as much as I’d love to tell you that Manning and the Broncos are going to win on Sunday, I’m leaning the other way.

Yes, Denver’s defense is very good. Point of fact, they’re the very best there is in the National Football League at the moment in any major statistical indicator you care to mention, and it’s been a pleasure watching them work.

The pass rush, led by Von Miller, unstoppable two weeks ago against the New England Patriots, is about as good as there is, and it’s backed up by an experienced secondary, anchored by Pro Bowl selections Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr. Denver’s message to opposing quarterbacks is clear: throw on these two at your own peril.

Two weeks ago in the AFC Championship victory over New England, Miller and his cohorts spent more time in the Patriot backfield than any of Bill Belichick’s running backs did. The protection – if you can even call it that – for quarterback Tom Brady was about as porous as anything in recent memory. I can’t recall a time where Brady was hit more. When he wasn’t hit, he was hurried and pressured, and that contributed to a pair of turnovers, and the least poised performance from Brady that we’ve seen in a while.

If Denver is to have any hope of winning, their pass rush will need to replicate that success against a Carolina offensive line that is far better than the injury-riddled one New England were able to put on the field in Denver a fortnight ago. I just don’t see them having such an easy time of it against Carolina’s front five.

There’s no doubt that the Denver defense is very good, and, yes, they’ve shut down a long list of good quarterbacks this season – Brady, Phillip Rivers, and Aaron Rodgers to name just a few – but they’re yet to have faced a multi-dimensional threat like Newton.

Don’t be fooled by the fact that he doesn’t have any real star wide receivers (apologies to Ted Ginn Jr. and co) or a hugely-productive running back (apologies to Jonathan Stewart) because Newton doesn’t seem to need anyone to propel the NFL’s highest-scoring offense – at more than 31 points per game – to great heights. Think he’s worried about taking on the NFL’s best defense? Probably not after routing Arizona (the fifth best) and Seattle (the second-best) in their last two playoff games.

Newton is clearly dangerous throwing the football, and has superstar tight end Greg Olsen to target, but where he really burns teams is with his legs. A broken play is arguably where Newton is at his most dangerous, improvising and freewheeling. He’s shown an innate ability to find the end zone, scoring ten rushing touchdowns in the regular season and two more in the NFC Championship Game.

Crucially, and unlike New England, Carolina has a good offensive line with which to combat the Denver rush. If they can give Newtown time to find targets like Olson, Ginn, ‘Philly’ Brown and big-bodied former Michigan Wolverine Devin Funchess. Or, he can keep the football himself, and that’s another wrinkle that, you’d think, will really stretch that Bronco defense.

In the past, we’ve seen Peyton Manning drag bad Indianapolis Colts defensive units to AFC Championship Games and Super Bowl contests because he’s been so offensively potent. This year, it’s been the opposite. The Denver offense hasn’t exactly set the world on fire. If you’ve kept an eye on the Broncos this year, you’ll know that Manning was benched midseason for Brock Osweiler before making a comeback for the playoffs. Neither guy has been great, and turnovers have been a major problem.

The AFC Championship Game showed us glimpses of the Peyton Manning of old. Just glimpses, mind you. His two touchdown throws to Owen Daniels were sensational, but for every good pass there seemed to be an under-thrown one, raising yet more questions about his arm strength.

I’m wondering if Manning hasn’t played his Super Bowl two weeks early in beating Brady and the Patriots. With no run game to speak of, Denver’s offense is on Manning’s shoulders and I’m not sure that he can shoulder the load. Five years ago? No worries. This Sunday? I can’t see it happening, unfortunately.

Carolina, whose defense, led by superstar linebacker, Luke Kuechly, has allowed less than sixty-five rushing yards per game these playoffs, forced seven turnovers against Carolina in the NFC Championship Game, reminds me plenty of the Seattle squad who dominated the Super Bowl two years ago, routing – yep, you guessed it – Manning and the Broncos.

Prediction: the Panthers defense forces multiple Manning turnovers, gifting Cam Newton too many short fields and wins 30-14.

2016 NFL Playoffs: AFC Divisional Round – New England vs. Kansas City Preview

Relaxed, refreshed and ready to begin the journey to a Super Bowl repeat, the New England Patriots, led so well by quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick, welcome the Kansas City Chiefs to the north-east, with the winner going on to play in the AFC Championship Game for a chance to represent the conference in Super Bowl 50.

The Chiefs come in off a solid 30-0 win over Houston on the road, and looked pretty good in the process, but the question must be asked: did the Chiefs look impressive because the Texans were so abominably bad, or does Andy Reid’s squad have a chance at going into Gillette and causing a pretty large upset?

Well, it’s hard to bet against the combination of Brady and Belichick come January, especially in the fortress that Gillette Stadium has become, and you’d be a brave person to bet against them going into this one, especially considering Brady gets one of his favourite and most dependable targets, Julian Edelman, back for this game. No doubt, Brady will be happy about that, having managed to guide a patchwork offense through the back half of the season, though the Pats did lose four of their last six after opening 2015 with ten straight wins.

There are holes in the Patriot squad, no doubt. Offensively, they were held to just 196 total yards against Miami in a 20-10 loss in the final game of the regular season, and you can bet Andy Reid and his coaching staff have been watching that film during the week!

Kansas City can really cause some problems up front for the Patriots. The unit, which will likely include Sebastian Vollmer (injured against the New York Jets in the second-last game of the regular season) charged with keeping Brady on his feet hasn’t been great at times this year, and they really need to have their best game of the season on Saturday afternoon or it’ll be a long day going against the likes of potent pass rusher Tamba Hali and excellent linebacker Justin Houston. Brady needs time to find his targets. Whether he gets it depends on the play of his D-line.

The game-long battle between the well-drilled Chiefs secondary, which is led by Marcus Peters (eight interceptions in the regular season, and two more against Houston) and the inspirational Eric Berry, against Brady’s offensive weapons, led by the imposing Rob Gronkowski. The big tight end is a nightmare match-up for just about every defense in the League, and if the Pats are going to eke out a win, you figure Gronk will need to have a huge game.

I have some concerns about the Chiefs offense. Alex Smith, a reasonable duel-threat quarterback, doesn’t get much support from his wide receivers, which means that most of his passes are going to be headed in the direction of star tight end Travis Kelce. Smith needs big plays from Jeremy Maclin, and needs stability in the run game.

The Chiefs backfield is missing the impressive Jamaal Charles, and the slack must be picked up by Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware. Whether they can find holes in the Patriots defense remains to be seen. It certainly won’t be as easy this week as it was against Houston. Patriots pass-rushing star Chandler Jones will make sure of that.

Prediction: I’ve got a feeling that the Chiefs defense can slow down Brady enough to keep the game close, but whether Alex Smith and company can take advantage of that and score enough points to pull out the upset is another thing entirely. I’ve got the Patriots by ten.

Join The Roar for live coverage of this AFC divisional round match-up from Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts from 8:30am (AEDT) Sunday morning.

Thanks for the Super Bowl Memories, Tom Coughlin.

Monday marked the official confirmation of what we’ve suspected for some time: Tom Coughlin resigned as head coach of the New York Football Giants, ending one of the most successful periods that the storied franchise has known.

The last few years have undoubtedly been lean one for the Giants, particularly on the defensive side – a constant source of frustration for Big Blue fans, including myself – and Coughlin’s resignation, coming before he was likely fired from the job, is the end result of a lean trot. The NFL is very much a ‘what have you done for me lately?’ league, and the sad fact is that Coughlin, other than invent new and torturous ways to lose football games, hasn’t done much in the last few seasons.

Recent exploits, or lack thereof, shouldn’t take away from the overall legacy that Coughlin leaves. Obviously, the twin Super Bowl triumphs of 2008 (after the 2007 season) and 2012 (after the 2011 season) are the high point of Coughlin’s tenure in New York, and will long be remembered as one of the bright spots in Giants franchise history.

The playoff run of 2007-08 was a thing of beauty. I was fortunate enough to be in America for it’s entirety. The first-up Wild Card weekend win over Jeff Garcia and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers wasn't too unexpected, despite it coming on the road. After that, though, the Giants weren’t given much chance of progressing any further than that.

Someone forgot to tell Coughlin’s men they weren’t supposed to win, and they went on an incredible win, beginning with a nail-biting win over Dallas in Cowboys Stadium, during which I’d never paced so much in my life, back and forth across my friend’s garage-turned-recording studio.

The Dallas win meant a monumentally large NFC Championship Game against Brett Favre’s favoured Green Bay at Lambeau Field in the middle of the frigid Wisconsin weather, where Plaxico Burress shredded elite cornerback Al Harris time and time again. The Giants forced overtime, and in the extra frame, Lawrence Tynes kicked the Giants to a Super Bowl. If only I could’ve paced back and forth in that game, I would’ve racked up miles’ worth. Instead, I was at a bar in Las Vegas – fittingly the New York-New York Hotel and Casino – nervously imbibing drinks poured by one of the funniest bartenders I’ve ever met.

Super Bowl XLII bound, the Giants, again, weren’t given a chance. Not against the heretofore undefeated New England Patriots, every man and his dog’s pick to win the game comfortably, and seal an unblemished season with a Lombardi Trophy.  Tom Brady and Bill Belichick were supposed to waltz into the history books that night.

Instead, it was the Giants who doggedly fought their way into the pages of NFL history in Glendale, Arizona. Fittingly, my schedule had me in New York City the week leading up to the Super Bowl, and on game day. That Sunday was a miserably wet one in New York City, and I elected to watch proceedings in my hotel room, specifically so I could pace to my heart’s content.

What a heart-stopper, it turned out to me. David Tyree’s catch seemed unbelievable, so thank God for the myriad replays on the FOX broadcast – if only Joe Buck could have sounded a little more excited; he called the play like it was a one-yard reception by a rarely-used fullback – as I tried to digest exactly how Tyree had managed to clasp the ball to his helmet like he did.

Hell, Tyree didn’t have any business making a catch. Not with the Patriots defenders seemingly about to swamp Eli Manning for a huge loss. Somehow, someway, Eli, showing off agility that we haven’t really seen before or since, to get the throw away. Tyree’s catch was something else. Just incredible! As were the post-game celebrations, all over the five boroughs. Even Jets fans were happy to see the Pats lose.

That last defensive stand after someone in the Patriots coverage forgot to cover Plaxico Burress, allowing Plax to score the go-ahead touchdown, was hard to watch. Kind of like seeing a car accident: you don’t want to look, really, but you can’t look away. I could barely breathe during that last set of downs, and afterward, as Coach Coughlin and Eli hoisted the Lombardi Trophy aloft, I could scarcely believe it.

The Giants Super Bowl triumph four years later had similar aspects to the astounding run to Glendale. I was lucky enough to be in America again to see most of it unfolded, right up to the overtime NFC Championship Game win, this time against San Francisco, also on the road, and the idea of going home to Australia killed me. I practically had to be dragged onto the plane against my will.

At least I could pace around my own lounge room in Sydney as the Giants faced off against a revenge-minded Patriots squad, who were warm-to-hot favourites once more. Like four years earlier, the game went down to the wire, and another memorable triumph was helped along by another freakish reception, this time courtesy of Mario Manningham down the sidelines.

What would a Giants-Patriots Super Bowl be without a last-gasp defensive stand? I thought my team was going to lose. I thought they’d scored the go-ahead touchdown far too quickly, and had left Brady too much time on the clock. Thankfully, that wasn't the case, and Eli, improbably, suddenly had more Super Bowl rings than big brother Peyton.

Two memorable Super Bowl wins separated by four years, and, to this day, Patriot fans get nervous when they play the Giants. The two are incapable of not playing a close game. I daresay there’ll be a few Patriots players, administrators and fans breathing a sigh of relief upon hearing of Coughlin’s retirement.

Me? I’m sad. Coughlin helped deliver two of the best sporting moments of my life, and, despite hating not seeing the Giants have any recent postseason success, I’ll really miss seeing his irascible face on the sidelines next year, and beyond.

Thanks for the memories, Coach Coughlin. It was a fun ride.

Week 10 of the NFL Was Unbelievably Crazy

If you’ve followed the National Football League for any length of time, you’re aware that strange results and crazy plays are not uncommon, but, even so, the level of craziness we saw across Week Ten was through the roof.

Where to start?

Green Bay

Why not up north? Green Bay dominate all comers at Lambeau Field. It’s not called the Frozen Tundra for nothing. The Packers are especially adept at turning the venerable stadium – perhaps the most famous of all National Football League venues – into a desolate graveyard for their NFC North rivals the Detroit Lions.

It’s been nearly a quarter of a century since the Lions have won in Lambeau Field. Back then, Michael Jackson’s ‘Black or White’ was the number one song in America, and George Bush Sr. was in the White House.

Who in their right mind would ever have thought that the Lions of 2015, winners of just one game and likely to be the subject of a major franchise clean-out at seasons end would be the team to break a winless drought in Green Bay?

More than that, the Packers, after starting 6-0, have lost three straight, and relinquish their hold on the NFC North Division with a Minnesota win over Oakland.

Peyton Manning

Early on, it was a great day for Manning. He broke Brett Favre’s all-time passing yardage record – an incredible achievement that should assure Manning’s legacy as one of the greatest ever. But things went downhill after that, and did so quickly. Actually, the warning signs had been there early.

Before breaking Favre’s record, Manning had tossed an interception. He proceeded to toss three more, and recorded a QB Rating of 0.1. That’s the worst such rating in the last ten years.

Then, the unthinkable happened. Gary Kubiak, tiring of Manning turning the football over to the Chiefs (who led 19-0 at the time, and would go on to win) and pulled him. That’s right, Peyton Manning was benched in favour of the tall timber from Arizona State, Brock Osweiler. It was perhaps the most shocking event of all on a Sunday with plenty to shock and surprise. Seeing Manning healthy and watching on from the sidelines was something I never expected to see.

Kirk Cousins

The quarterback situation in Washington isn’t great. You don’t need me to tell you that. It’s been a circus with Robert Griffin III, Colt McCoy and Kirk Cousins over the last few years, but the much-maligned backup-turned-starter Cousins turned on a performance for the ages, recording a perfect Quarterback Rating of 158.3 as the Redskins destroyed the New Orleans Saints – a surprise in of itself -47-14. He went 20-25 for 324 yards and four touchdowns on a very good day for a Washington team that hasn’t had too many this season.

Now, be honest, of all the quarterbacks out there in today’s NFL – Brady, Newton, Dalton, Palmer – I bet Kirk Cousins was right at the bottom of your list of signal-callers you thought would record a perfect rating. Especially after some downright horrible performances this season. Cousins almost looked like a legitimate franchise quarterback out there! Told you it was a crazy NFL Sunday!

Jacksonville

One of the worst teams in the NFL for the last few years, the Jaguars, although improving, still hadn’t won on the road since the 2013 season, and, of course, it came at the end on a suitably crazy play. With no time outs, the last play – or so we thought – was QB Blake Bortles being sacked at midfield, thus ending the game. Right? Wrong. Because Baltimore’s Elvis Dumervil put in a nomination for Bonehead of the Year, bringing down Bortles squarely by his facemask. Flag, fifteen yards, game-winning field goal.

New York Giants

Tom Coughlin needs to hang his head in shame. Not for the first time this season – in fact, it’s easily, like, the third time – the irascible Giants head coach completely forgot how to manage the clock late in the game, with his team on the doorstep and poised to take a lead over the undefeated New England Patriots. Coughlin opted to pass the football rather than run it when in the red zone, as a result, didn’t take enough time off the clock en route to capturing a narrow two-point lead, courtesy of a field goal.

It turned out to be a fleeting lead, because Tom Brady had too much time on the clock, and Giants fans had that “Oh no!” feeling in their stomach. Although, Brady did his best ‘bad quarterback’ impression, seemingly trying to gift the Giants a win by popping up a punt-like throw to Landon Collins who, inexplicably, dropped what would have been a game-sealing interception. Yep, it was that kind of game for the Giants.

In the end, the Giants lost on a 54-yard field goal from Mr Automatic Stephen Gostkowski, who seems like he could nail them from the parking lot.

Arizona vs. Seattle

A safety after Russell Wilson ran into his own lineman, two consecutive possessions where Carson Palmer was sacked and stripped, a vintage Larry Fitzgerald performance – like it was 2009 or something – and a mammoth comeback for Arizona to score an important  39-32 win, but only after Seattle stormed back from as much as nineteen points down to lead for a while in the fourth.

This NFC West battle (one that actually ran into Monday morning on the east coast of America), had a little of everything, and was a fitting end to one of the craziest Sundays of NFL football I can remember. 

And wasn't it fantastic?

NFL 2015: Week 10 Sunday Night Football - Arizona vs Seattle - Preview

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The cutthroat NFC West comes to primetime Sunday night football, with the division-leading Arizona Cardinals heading into the Pacific Northwest to take on Seattle.

Despite the fact that the Seahawks have been indifferent in 2015 – they sit at 4-4, two games behind the Cardinals – the trip out to Seattle is still one of the more difficult in football and Arizona get to test their mettle in front of a national NBC audience. Historically, the Cardinals have done their best work out of the spotlight that comes with a Sunday night showcase game, but this is a different and better Cardinals outfit than those who’ve taken on the primetime challenge in the past.

With quarterback Carson Palmer healthy and playing arguably the best football of a career that looked to have spluttered out after his departure from Cincinnati, the Cardinals are a serious and legitimate threat. A win Sunday night would give them a 3-game lead in the NFC West and, barring a calamitous series of injuries like they suffered last year, losing Palmer and others at the worst possible time, limping into a playoff campaign that should have been more fruitful than it turned out to be.

There are no such problems this year – so far, and fingers crossed – and the Cardinals are humming along nicely, if a little under the radar. That will change Sunday night, and the large chunk of the NFL world that hasn’t seen much of Arizona so far this year, will discover a very entertaining and high-scoring team. The Cardinals rank second in scoring (at nearly 33 points a game) and are fourth in both passing yards and total offense.

As those stats would suggest, Palmer airs it out to receivers Michael Floyd, John Brown and the evergreen superstar Larry Fitzgerald with regularity, and it works. Yet, the Cardinals are far from a one-dimensional squad. Not with Chris Johnson, another story of desert resurgence that rivals Palmer’s, dominating the ground game as he hasn’t done in many years. He has recorded four one hundred yard outings in the last six games, and is a vital cog in the offensive machine. Crucially, Arizona are 12-2 since the beginning of 2014 when Palmer plays.

The Cardinal defense is top-notch, and their secondary might just be the very best in the entire NFL. Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu lead a unit that is justly feared by opposing attacks. Watch, also, for Calais Campbell, an underrated defensive tackle who will look to take advantage of a weak Seattle offensive line and try to create turnovers as a result.

The entire Cardinal defense needs to limit Seattle QB Russell Wilson’s Wilson running. He’s the master of creating something from the ashes of a big play, and if he does it too often, he wins football games. The Arizona linebackers – led by Alex Okafor and Dwight Freeney – will earn their pay this weekend.

On the other side: Seattle, who started slowly last year, came down the home stretch like a hurricane through a small town, ending up in the Super Bowl, where they came perilously close to a second-straight championship. More now than ever before in 2015, the Seahawks are healthy, and when they’re healthy, you can’t discount them. After all, they didn’t reach two consecutive Super Bowls by accident.

The afore mentioned Russell Wilson, is an impressive 21-3 at home in his career. That alone makes Seattle no pushover, even with their record. He needs to remain upright, though, which has been a problem for the Seattle offensive line. Wilson has been sacked thirty-one times so far this season, but remained untouched in the Seahawks’ last outing, a win against Dallas. If he has time to make plays with his feet and get the ball into the hands of Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse and tight end threat, Jimmy Graham, watch out. And then there’s Marshawn Lynch. He doesn’t like to talk to the media, but when he lets his game do the talking, Seattle generally win.

Lest we forget that the Seahawk defense is still stacked with A-grade talent – especially in the secondary, where Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas roam, ball hawks all three – and they have a history of stifling Arizona in these rivalry games. In fact, they did it twice last year, holding the Cardinals to a combined 420 yards and zero touchdowns, but both those occasions, Palmer was injured. It’ll be a different story this time around, of course, and I can’t wait to see how Pete Carroll’s defense handles Carroll’s former USC quarterback Palmer.

Prediction: a close, low-scoring game that the Cardinals win, by somewhere between 7 and 10 points.

Join The Roar for live scores and coverage of this pivotal NFC West showdown on Monday afternoon (AEDT) from 12:15pm.

NFL 2015: New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys Preview

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On Monday morning AEST, another chapter will be written in one of the great National Football League divisional rivalries, with the Dallas Cowboys heading to the Met Life Stadium in the Meadowlands of New Jersey to face the New York Giants.
Both teams have suffered through an uneven 2015 season, but with the NFC East title race still wide open, and destined to be a battleground right through the final week of the regular season, this clash at Met Life Stadium is a pivotal one, as both teams look to keep pace with the Philadelphia Eagles, who lead the division courtesy of their big win against the Giants on Monday Night Football.

It was a disappointing Monday night outing for Giants QB Eli Manning, who had his worst game of the season, tossing two interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown, as part of a team total of four turnovers. It was a lacklustre effort by the Giants offense, and their defence simply spent too long on the field to be effective, hence the comprehensive 27-7 loss. Twelve penalties and a season-low offensive production of just 247 total yards didn’t help either, of course.

Thankfully, redemption comes quickly, at home, and against another division rival. For Manning, the key is wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. No one knows exactly how healthy the second-year receiver out of Louisiana State is (he’s listed as having a hamstring injury, but will play), but even a slightly-hobbled OBJ is going to make plays. Manning will need to find him early and often – OBJ had ten catches for 146 yards and two scores in the corresponding game a season ago – and rely on some production from the run game, led by Rashard Jennnings.

Watch for the Giants defense, who’ve created turnovers with regularity this year, including three in their earlier match-up with Dallas, to do some of the same this time around. If they can give Manning and the Giants offense a short field, it might be a long day for the Cowboys.

The Cowboys have their own problems, twin ones on offense: namely, the absence of veteran quarterback Tony Romo and star wide receiver Dez Bryant. Romo is on the sidelines recuperating from a broken collarbone sustained in late September, and Brandon Weeden had been filling the spot under centre for the Cowboys, but a poor last start – part of a bad 30-6 loss to New England – has seen Weeden benched in favour of former USC quarterback Matt Cassel.

Meanwhile, Bryant, a guy who barely has to be in the same postcode as the football to make a play, has been downgraded to ‘out’ and will be sorely missed as Cassel aims to become the first Cowboys quarterback not named Tony Romo to win a game since Steven McGee in late 2010. It’s been a long time between drinks for back-up signal callers in Dallas, and an indication of how valuable the oft-maligned Romo is for the Cowboys.

At least the journeyman Cassel will have veteran tight end Jason Witten catching passes. He’s been very good over a long period of time against the Giants, and Cassel will need Witten to be better than ever, if the Cowboys are to win. Some key injuries in the Giants secondary might give Cassel a better look at things. His main priority is to protect the football, so expect lots of short throws, especially early as he settles in.

This game is a desperation one, and I’ve got a feeling we’ll see a lot of points, and a narrow Giants win, purely because they have home field advantage, and I’ve got absolutely no confidence in a Cowboys offense without Romo and Bryant.

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Super Bowl XLIX: The Play Call Heard ‘Round The World

Did you see the reaction on the face of Tom Brady when Russell Wilson’s goal-line pass was thrown into the waiting – and very receptive – arms of Malcolm Butler, the undrafted defender out of Western Alabama? It was the throw that sealed New England’s fourth Super Bowl championship in fourteen years, and it effectively erased the crazy defensive play that ended as a Jermaine Kearse catch for Seattle after bouncing off various body parts of two New England defenders, and Butler lastly, before somehow ending up in Kearse’s arms.

When Brady saw the ball in Butler’s arms, he jumped so high that he could’ve just about landed in the corporate level of the University of Phoenix Stadium. There was genuine surprise in his eyes. Or was that shock? Either way, the reaction suggested that Brady had, if not yet resigned himself to losing a third consecutive Super Bowl appearance, was at least mentally preparing for a last-gasp attempt to steal back a lead. He couldn't believe the call.

When Kearse made his ridiculous catch – right up there with the David Tyree ‘Helmet Catch’ and Mario Manningham’s ‘Sideline Catch’ in terms of outright implausibility – Seattle had the game for the taking. They ran Marshawn Lynch, and he nearly went into the end zone, but was dragged down at about the one.

Still time, and Beast Mode was able to sniff a second-straight Super Bowl championship. Run him again, right? Maybe straight ahead, or off to one side to maybe eat a few seconds and give Brady less chance for a Hail Mary-type answer. It was almost inevitable. Lynch has scarcely been stopped from that close in his career. Not just this season – but ever.

Then, Pete Carroll or Darrell Bevell or whomever it was in the Seattle brains trust who dreamed up the next play became the most infamous man in Seattle sporting history, if not the history of the Super Bowl. Credit to Pete Carroll: in post-game interviews, he took full credit, but if there’s one thing I’ve noticed about the Seahawks coach in the many years I’ve watched him at the NFL and, before, when he was coach at the University of Southern California, it’s that it isn’t his style to throw someone under the bus. Perhaps Pete was covering for his offensive coordinator here.

Maybe it was Carroll or maybe it was Bevell who made the fateful call. At this point, though, it hardly matters, does it? What matters is how the play unfolded. What matters is that the short Wilson throw into a tiny bracket, the ball that was eventually lifted away by Butler, and with it Seattle’s chances at a rare back-to-back Super Bowl triumph melted away.

From the jaws of near-certain victory – or, at least, reassuming a lead with very few seconds left on the clock – somehow the men from the Pacific Northwest managed to snatch the worst and most extraordinarily cruel defeat. But it is the play calling circumstances under which the Seahawks lost that make this such a tough pill for all Seahawks fans (and anyone who can’t stand New England) to swallow.

Why, when the field is compressed, would you make such a dangerous throw? Sure, if you didn’t have a guy the calibre of Marshawn Lynch lined up in the backfield, maybe you’d call it. But the fact is, Seattle do have Lynch, and you’d just about put your life on the fact that, on any of the remaining downs, Beast Mode was gonna cash in. That’s what he does. That’s what he’s always done. It’s why the rabid fans chant “Beeeeeeeeeeeeast” up in Seattle. Lynch is a cult figure because of exactly the sort of barrelling run that was required in the dying seconds of Super Bowl XLIX.

In the immediate aftermath, NBC’s Cris Collinsworth started the parade of analysts panning the Seahawks call. You know that it’s pretty bad when, Collinsworth, the world’s most positive football analyst, says it’s bad.

Deion Sanders called said it was “the worst play-call in Super Bowl history,” and, you know, he wasn’t far wrong. Rodney Harrison and Tony Dungy said post-game on NBC that Seattle had made the wrong call. Later on ESPN, Hall of Fame quarterback Steve Young looked perplexed, laughing awkwardly at replays. Tom Jackson said he’d have run the ball. You and me both, TJ. You and me both.

Word leaked out via Twitter that players were openly ripping the final play call – at least, those who could talk over their grief – in the locker room doesn’t come as a huge surprise to me. It’s such a horrible way to lose, and those players must be feeling absolute gut-wrenching despair at the moment. How sick must Russell Wilson feel right now? Beyond that, I feel. He’s probably inconsolable.

And with good reason, because there’s so much to question. It was a monumental brain-fade that will likely be one of the most talked-about Super Bowl moments a hundred years from now.

Pete Carroll’s words in post-game press conference about how he was trying to have Russell Wilson throw the ball in order take advantage of whatever formation the Patriots were showing on that down and try to run it with Lynch the down after made no sense to me. Honestly, as confused as the explanation was, I’m not even sure I got the gist of it properly, but as Steve Young said on ESPN, if, at any time, you don’t like the defensive formation in front of you, call a time out and think about it come more. Especially given the gravity of the situation.

Alas, the Seahawks did not, and after being defeated thanks to some rather miraculous plays in two previous Super Bowl appearances, the Patriots received a little luck the other way, and win their first championship in ten years – congratulations to them, for coming back from ten down, a championship-worthy effort. They celebrate and Seattle commiserate, but it could have been so much different.

If not for the Call Heard ‘Round The World.

Super Bowl XLIX Half Time Analysis

 

Well...

This game is eerily similar to the NFC Championship Game between Seattle and Green Bay. The Packers dominated but couldn't score enough points. Then the Seahawks woke up.

As we end a fast-moving first half, New England appear to be doing something similar. Brady's interception was a throw he should never have made, and Jeremy Lane gleefully collected it. It was a strange decision from a guy who normally only makes good ones.

At the worst, New England should have at least 17 points on the board, assuming they made at least a field goal on the interception drive. As it stands, there's little that that the Patriots have to show for dominating the first half. In fact, there's nothing!

The thing is, it could've been so much more. We could be talking about a 21-14 lead. Brady's completed 20-27 and looked good, especially with that short passing game that's worked well. His two deep ball shots have turned out pretty well, too.

Credit Seattle, though. They looked out of sorts for a lot of that first half, but managed to make enough plays - including that big pass from Wilson to Chris Matthews - and Wilson used his legs a few times. Seems to be the backup guys doing most of the damage, with Lockette nabbing that pass late, to match Chris Matthews, who had a handy reception for his first of the year. And then another, for his second of the year, a touchdown when they probably should've settled for a field goal.

What a furious last two-and-a-bit minutes!! And Seattle gets the football to start the third quarter.

Rob Gronkowski was mostly quiet, except when he snatched that deep ball from Brady for New England's second touchdown. That was a huge coverage bust from Seattle Gronk had a step on his man, and that's all he needs to make an impact.

The second half is going to be insane! Still think Seattle's mix of a good running game and solid defense sees them win, but who knows for sure?

A Simple Guide to Super Bowl XLIX

Who: AFC Champion New England Patriots vs. NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks

Where: University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona

Half-time entertainment: Katy Perry and Lenny Kravitz

When: Monday 2 February 10.30am (AEDT)

Key Players To Watch: Tom Brady (New England), Marshawn Lynch (Seattle), Rob Gronkowski (New England) and Richard Sherman (Seattle).

Last Time They Met: Seattle def. New England 24-23 in Seattle, October 14 2012 

Join The Roar for live coverage of Super Bowl XLIX from 10.00am AEDT on Monday


Seattle

Last Super Bowl appearance: 2015 vs. Denver, a 43-8 win)
The Seahawks seek to be the first back-to-back Super Bowl champions since, ironically, the New England Patriots squads a decade ago. Last year’s 43-8 triumph over Peyton Manning’s Broncos was a startling score line, and a victory driven by a defensive performance for the ages. It was 22-0 at half time, and 36-0 into the third quarter before Denver’s first points.

If the ‘Hawks, who forced two Peyton Manning interceptions (one of which was returned 69 yards by Malcolm Smith, the eventual MVP) in the first half a year ago, can produce something similar on Monday morning inside University of Phoenix Stadium, they’ll be well on their way to a victory.

Without the same white-hot offense that New England can boost, the Seahawks rely heavily on a brilliant, ball-hawking defense to force turnovers – which they do with startling regularity – and set up their offense with a short field. Then Russell Wilson invariably hands the ball off to Marshawn Lynch and the running back known as Beast Mode (watch him, and you’ll see why) does the rest. Seattle are also capable of the occasional big passing play on Wilson’s deceptively strong arm. Look for Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse on such deep-field throws.

New England boasts a strong rushing attack, to most likely be spearheaded by LeGarrette Blount, who ran all over Indianapolis in the AFC Championship Game, and will look to do the same against the Seahawks. It won’t be easy. Seattle’s defensive front is sold. Indeed, they haven’t given up more than 73 rushing yards since a game against Kansas City, which is also their last loss. That game? Back in mid-November.

If you believe in the notion of teams starting the way they finished their last game, then Seattle are going to be threatening from the outset. Their final 5:00 of regulation and overtime in the NFC Championship Game against Green Bay was nothing short of incredible, a finish for the ages that included a trademark Marshawn Lynch touchdown run, a fortuitous bound of an on-side kick, and a stunning overtime drive that ended in a game-winning touchdown.

Prior to that, the Seahawks didn’t look like their usual selves. Russell Wilson threw multiple interceptions and Lynch had been well bottled up. What Green Bay learnt, and what New England will have to be aware of is that Lynch is rarely bottled up for the entire time. The Seahawks offense, like their defense, has the great ability to wear opposition teams down, and strike with a big play.

Defensively, there are some questions – not talent-related, but there are a few players carrying injury niggles into the game, and star Richard Sherman might end up having to choose between playing in the Super Bowl and being bedside as his girlfriend is expected to give birth to their son, potentially on game day. Big games in any code are littered with underdone players taking a chance to be on the field, and more often than not it blows up in the face of the team taking that risk.

For the sake of this game, brilliant offense versus brilliant defense, I hope that won’t happen here, but you never know, and the prospect of underdone defenders against Tom Brady must give Brady chills of excitement and give Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll sleepless nights. Make no mistake, if the Hawks defense are on song, watch out New England.

New England

Last Super Bowl Appearance: 2012 vs. New York Giants, a 21-17 loss)

The Patriots, after winning two Super Bowls, lost their last two (2008, against the New York Giants, spoiling an otherwise-undefeated season, and four years later to a Giants squad with many returnees – they were favourites in both) and will certainly be glad that they aren’t facing their recent nemesis, the Giants.

Even the most casual NFL fan knows Tom Brady, he of 20 playoff victories and 47 playoff touchdown passes. The Patriots quarterback is one of the all-time greats, and a win on Sunday will make him just the third signal caller to win three Super Bowl titles, following Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw, two legends. His time in New England with head coach Bill Belichick has been particularly fruitful: they are the most successful coach-quarterback tandem in NFL history.

Brady’s favourite weapon, and the man who will likely need a big game to carry his team to victory, is Rob Gronkowski, a prototypical tight end, with all the physical intangibles you could want. He is a tough man to stop, and his productivity (or lack thereof, perhaps) throughout Super Bowl XLIX. If Gronk can get the better of the Seattle defense, the Patriots will be in a good position. It’s one of those duels that will decide the fate of the game.

Three years ago, against the Giants, he was underdone, and had minimal impact on the game. The Patriots’ have other weapons, like speedy receivers Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola, who can pop up and make a play here or there, but there’s no doubt that Brady and Gronkowski are the focal point of the New England pass game, and their production speaks for itself.

Just as New England will seek to limit the game-winning ability of Seattle’s running back Lynch, the Patriots will be hoping that their own, Blount, has the same sort of success he had two weeks ago, steamrolling Indianapolis. I’d be very surprised if Blount repeats that effort. As for the Patriots stopping the run defensively, they allowed only 83 total rushing yards against the Colts, but Lynch figures to be an entirely different and more daunting prospect. If he comes out of the gates and has early success, it only gets harder for the Patriots.

Prediction: Last year, I picked the better offense over defense, and was burned like so many who thought Denver would win. I won’t make the same mistake twice. I’ve got Seattle winning a tight, defensive game by somewhere between 7 and 10 points. Overtime? Yeah, wouldn’t surprise me.

Join The Roar for live coverage of Super Bowl XLIX from 10.00am AEDT on Monday

2014 AFC Championship Game – New England vs. Indianapolis – Preview

Not all that long ago, Indianapolis vs. New England meant Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady, and, ironically, another chance to see that marquee quarterback match-up was spoilt last week in Denver when Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts beat Manning’s Broncos, booking their spot in the AFC Championship, a daunting trip to Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts.

Perhaps this is a look at the future of the AFC – Luck and the Colts – against a dynasty – Brady and the Patriots – that’s ruled the conference, and, some might say, football over the last decade and a half. There’s no doubt that Brady is moving into the twilight of his career, though his on-field performance belies that fact, and Luck is a young quarterback, still learning what it takes to be an NFL quarterback.

So, the present and the future collide Sunday evening in Boston, and the winner will earn the right to face the NFC’s best, Seattle or Green Bay, for the biggest prize in American sport, the Lombardi Trophy. It will be the third time the Pats and Colts have met for the AFC championship, with New England winning the first contest (in 2003) and Indianapolis the second (2006), and, in what is perhaps a wonderful omen, the winners of those two games also went on to win the Super Bowl.

Alas, with good omens come bad ones, and there has been plenty of talk about the recent run of success the Patriots have had against the Colts. Indeed, Luck is 0-3 all-time against the Patriots, and the games haven’t been particularly close. The last two meetings? 43-22 New England in last year’s playoffs, and a 42-20 win in Indianapolis this past November.  In three games, the Patriots have outscored the Colts 144-66.

Doubtless the Colts will have studied game tape from the last few meetings – and if so, will have noticed that New England achieved great success running the football, thus keeping it out of the hands of Luck’s prolific and explosive offense.  LeGarrette Blount had four touchdowns amongst 166 yards in the playoff win vs. Indy last year, and in November, the little-talked-about Jonas Gray had four scores and 201 yards. There is a clear pattern and, obviously, as the numbers would suggest, Indianapolis’ defense had trouble stopping the run.

New England are stacked at running back. Gray was inactive last week as the Pats twice erased 14-point deficits to score a narrow 35-31 victory over Baltimore. In that game, Brandon Boldin started, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see Gray make a surprise appearance, given how well he performed against the Colts last time.

The real key to beating New England, though, is containing Tom Brady. Easier said than done, of course, but give the quarterback even a modicum of time in the pocket, he’s going to make a play. More often than not, it’ll be a big one – and probably to hulking tight end Rob Gronkowski. Or speedy receivers Julian Edelman or Danny Amendola.

Indy’s defense is going to have a hard time of it. Whilst Brady probably doesn’t have as many weapons as in previous years, he’s still got enough guys with sure hands who can make plays when it counts. They are depleted in the secondary, with both cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Greg Toler not practicing with teammates during the week. The two did a wonderful job of shutting down the Peyton Manning aerial attack in Denver, which led to a 24-13 win over the Broncos. Once again this week, Davis and Toler need to be on their game.

As do the New England defenders, who must look to take Luck’s favourite target TY Hilton out of the game. You can imagine that shutdown corner Darrelle Revis will see a lot of time lined up opposite Indy’s star receiver. Why? Well, other than that Revis is a gun, he saw success against Hilton in the November game, limiting the Indy receiver to just three catches for 24 yards. If Revis can in any way replicate that performance on Sunday, New England should win.

Last week saw the Colts run Dan Herron more times than he’s ever run it before (23 attempts for 63 yards and a touchdown), and they may need to do that again if Hilton and Luck’s other targets get shut down. Indy will start a group of healthy offensive linemen – the same combination for the third straight week – which will be a giant help for the ground game, particularly if the Colts are forced to rely on it. Crucially, Herron’s never carried the football against a Patriot defense.

Luck needs to hold onto the football. An obvious thing to say, I know, but also a key. He played well last week in Denver, though he did throw two interceptions. That’s the sort of thing that’ll kill you against Brady and co. Give Tom a short field, and he’ll make you pay. In three games against New England, Luck has six touchdowns and eight interceptions with a 53.8 completion percentage. In the playoffs, that won’t be enough. Nor will a Passer Rating of 67.7. Luck needs to play out of his skin on Sunday to give the Colts a shot in what will definitely be a hostile environment.

Prediction: I’d like to think the Colts have a shot here, but I’d like their chances far more if the game was at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, rather than up in Boston. It’s really hard to go past the combination of Brady and Belicheck. They’ve had so much success in the playoffs, and I think they’ll advance to their first Super Bowl since 2012 with a fairly comfortable victory in front of their home fans. Pats by about fourteen points.

Join The Roar for live coverage of the AFC Championship Game on Monday morning from 10.30am AEDT.

Opinion: Pat Tillman Deserves a Presence in the Pro Football Hall of Fame

If you don’t know the ultimately tragic story of Pat Tillman, here it is in a nutshell: Tillman, a star linebacker with the University of Arizona Sun Devils, signed a pro contract out of college and switched to safety for his rookie season with the Arizona Cardinals. He was a member of that team, coming off the 2000 season, where he amassed 155 tackles (120 solo), 1.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries, 9 pass deflections and 1 interception for 30 yards, on the day when the world changed. 

That day, of course, was September 11, 2001 when Al Qaeda terrorists flew hijacked planes into the twin World Trade Centre towers in New York City, the Pentagon across the Potomac River from Washington D.C. and, lastly, into a field in rural Pennsylvania.

Thousands of innocent people died. Certain pockets of the globe rejoiced.  Most were horrified. In retrospect, it was the end of a sort of innocence. Nothing has been the same since, and it never will be. At every bag check before entry into any concert or sporting venue in the world, the spectre of that horrible day looms large.

After completing the remaining fifteen games of the 2001 National Football League season Tillman made a brave and decision. He gave up his lucrative football career to enlist in the United States Army, doing so alongside his brother, Kevin in May 2002, eight months after 9/11. He did it knowing that despite his celebrity status, he would go to war. He did it knowing that he would go to war and perhaps not come back.

In the worst twist of fate imaginable, Tillman was killed by what was eventually determined to be friendly fire – shot accidentally by United States Army personnel – in Sperah, Afghanistan. The native of Fremont, California was just twenty-seven years old when he died on April 22, 2004 in the rugged wilderness of Afghanistan alongside, shot three times in the head (according to a Washington Post report), so far removed from the Bay Area of San Francisco, where he had been born and maintained a home. Killed in the same engagement was a member of the Afghani militia

Patrick Daniel Tillman of the 2nd Ranger Battalion, 75th Ranger Regiment, United States Army, became the first professional football player to be killed in combat since Bob Kalsu, who died in Vietnam in 1970. He was posthumously promoted from Specialist to Corporal and received, also posthumously, Silver Star and Purple Heart medals.

Over the course of the last decade, Tillman’s actions have gained great notoriety, and are often mentioned alongside the great feats of other heroes of the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts, men like Marine Corps sniper Chris Kyle, Navy SEAL Marcus Luttrell and the members of SEAL Team Six, who raided the Pakistani compound where the mastermind of the 9/11 attacks, Osama Bin Laden, was holed up, killing the head of Al Qaeda in the daring mission. His is an impressive legacy.

Here was My case is thus: the Pro Football Hall of Fame should find some way of honouring Tillman. I do not for a minute suggest that he should be given a  bust along the other members of the Hall in Canton, Ohio, for Tillman hadn’t reached that legendary level during his admittedly-short career – and, most probably wouldn’t have, had his playing days continued – but the sacrifice, which, admittedly, has attracted it’s fair share of controversy in the intervening years, deserves to be recognised.

After all, here was a man who had the world at his feet. He had signed a big contract with Arizona, turning down a bigger one – five years and $9 million, which was giant money at that time – with St Louis out of loyalty to the Cardinals. Yet, he gave it all up because he’d been so disturbed and affected by the events of 9/11 that he felt a pressing need to go and do something. Tillman had more than enough money to live a comfortable life. He didn’t have to go to war. It wasn’t expected of him. He went anyway. The rest is heart-tearing history.

To commemorate what I believe to be one of the great selfless acts by a sportsperson anywhere in the world, something should be done in the Hall of Fame, if for no other reason than the players who are enshrined there – legends of the gridiron, to a man, if not always such legendary people; OJ Simpson, Lawrence Taylor, I’m looking at you – are crucial to telling the history of the game. Their exploits on Sunday afternoons are the fabric of the National Football League.

So, too, is Pat Tillman’s decision to quit pro football and enlist in the United States Army. You cannot talk about the NFL in the decade from 2000-2010 without mentioning Pat Tillman and everything he did. It cannot be done, and would perhaps be akin to talking about NASCAR during the same period of time and ignoring the death of Kenny Irwin Jr, not a household name, not destined for the NASCAR Hall of Fame, but still a vital part of his sport’s history.

To appropriately and deservedly honour Pat Tillman and the great and honourable things he stood for, the Pro Football Hall of Fame should consider a special category, perhaps something along the lines of special community service. The National Hockey League annually awards The NHL Foundation Player Award to a player for Outstanding Community Service. Is there a greater service to the community than going to war?

Naturally, the exact wording and title for the special category that would allow Tillman into Canton could be better named than by the likes of myself, but there is most certainly room for such an honour.

On reflection, that Tillman hasn’t been honoured in the most sacred pro football destination of them all in the last decade is unforgiveable. After all, here was a man who has transcended the game of football to become a true American hero.

Yet, at his very core, the late Patrick Daniel Tillman was a football player, a legend in his own way, and he deserves to be remembered in the same place that so many other NFL legends, whose off-field exploits were nowhere near as memorable as Tillman’s, are remembered.