Not all that long ago, Indianapolis vs. New England meant Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady, and, ironically, another chance to see that marquee quarterback match-up was spoilt last week in Denver when Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts beat Manning’s Broncos, booking their spot in the AFC Championship, a daunting trip to Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts.
Perhaps this is a look at the future of the AFC – Luck and the Colts – against a dynasty – Brady and the Patriots – that’s ruled the conference, and, some might say, football over the last decade and a half. There’s no doubt that Brady is moving into the twilight of his career, though his on-field performance belies that fact, and Luck is a young quarterback, still learning what it takes to be an NFL quarterback.
So, the present and the future collide Sunday evening in Boston, and the winner will earn the right to face the NFC’s best, Seattle or Green Bay, for the biggest prize in American sport, the Lombardi Trophy. It will be the third time the Pats and Colts have met for the AFC championship, with New England winning the first contest (in 2003) and Indianapolis the second (2006), and, in what is perhaps a wonderful omen, the winners of those two games also went on to win the Super Bowl.
Alas, with good omens come bad ones, and there has been plenty of talk about the recent run of success the Patriots have had against the Colts. Indeed, Luck is 0-3 all-time against the Patriots, and the games haven’t been particularly close. The last two meetings? 43-22 New England in last year’s playoffs, and a 42-20 win in Indianapolis this past November. In three games, the Patriots have outscored the Colts 144-66.
Doubtless the Colts will have studied game tape from the last few meetings – and if so, will have noticed that New England achieved great success running the football, thus keeping it out of the hands of Luck’s prolific and explosive offense. LeGarrette Blount had four touchdowns amongst 166 yards in the playoff win vs. Indy last year, and in November, the little-talked-about Jonas Gray had four scores and 201 yards. There is a clear pattern and, obviously, as the numbers would suggest, Indianapolis’ defense had trouble stopping the run.
New England are stacked at running back. Gray was inactive last week as the Pats twice erased 14-point deficits to score a narrow 35-31 victory over Baltimore. In that game, Brandon Boldin started, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see Gray make a surprise appearance, given how well he performed against the Colts last time.
The real key to beating New England, though, is containing Tom Brady. Easier said than done, of course, but give the quarterback even a modicum of time in the pocket, he’s going to make a play. More often than not, it’ll be a big one – and probably to hulking tight end Rob Gronkowski. Or speedy receivers Julian Edelman or Danny Amendola.
Indy’s defense is going to have a hard time of it. Whilst Brady probably doesn’t have as many weapons as in previous years, he’s still got enough guys with sure hands who can make plays when it counts. They are depleted in the secondary, with both cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Greg Toler not practicing with teammates during the week. The two did a wonderful job of shutting down the Peyton Manning aerial attack in Denver, which led to a 24-13 win over the Broncos. Once again this week, Davis and Toler need to be on their game.
As do the New England defenders, who must look to take Luck’s favourite target TY Hilton out of the game. You can imagine that shutdown corner Darrelle Revis will see a lot of time lined up opposite Indy’s star receiver. Why? Well, other than that Revis is a gun, he saw success against Hilton in the November game, limiting the Indy receiver to just three catches for 24 yards. If Revis can in any way replicate that performance on Sunday, New England should win.
Last week saw the Colts run Dan Herron more times than he’s ever run it before (23 attempts for 63 yards and a touchdown), and they may need to do that again if Hilton and Luck’s other targets get shut down. Indy will start a group of healthy offensive linemen – the same combination for the third straight week – which will be a giant help for the ground game, particularly if the Colts are forced to rely on it. Crucially, Herron’s never carried the football against a Patriot defense.
Luck needs to hold onto the football. An obvious thing to say, I know, but also a key. He played well last week in Denver, though he did throw two interceptions. That’s the sort of thing that’ll kill you against Brady and co. Give Tom a short field, and he’ll make you pay. In three games against New England, Luck has six touchdowns and eight interceptions with a 53.8 completion percentage. In the playoffs, that won’t be enough. Nor will a Passer Rating of 67.7. Luck needs to play out of his skin on Sunday to give the Colts a shot in what will definitely be a hostile environment.
Prediction: I’d like to think the Colts have a shot here, but I’d like their chances far more if the game was at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, rather than up in Boston. It’s really hard to go past the combination of Brady and Belicheck. They’ve had so much success in the playoffs, and I think they’ll advance to their first Super Bowl since 2012 with a fairly comfortable victory in front of their home fans. Pats by about fourteen points.
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