After so many controversial years where computers determined the two best college football teams in the nation, finally there is a semblance of something normal and something right, arriving in the long-awaited form of the College Football Playoff.
Two semi-final games – the Rose Bowl Game and Sugar Bowl, both played on New Year’s Day – have brought us the two teams who will contest what is arguably the most anticipated college football game in…well, certainly in the last decade or two.
On Tuesday afternoon AEDT, the Ohio State University Buckeyes of the Big Ten will face the University of Oregon Ducks from the Pac-12 conference at AT&T Stadium in North Texas, home to the Dallas Cowboys. The Pac-12/Big Ten match-up is the preferred and traditional conference pairing for the Rose Bowl Game in Pasadena on New Year’s Day, and over the many decades that the Rose Bowl Game has been played, we’ve seen epic encounter after epic encounter.
The first ever College Football Playoff Championship Game promises to be another nail-biter, pitting an Oregon team who have been at or near the top of the national rankings since the opening weekend of the season, against an Ohio State team starting it’s third-string quarterback. The Buckeyes enter this one off a memorable and unexpected 42-35 Sugar Bowl victory against the Alabama Crimson Tide whilst the Ducks impressively dispatched defending National Champions Florida State in the Rose Bowl Game to the tune of 59-20, turning a 18-13 half-time lead into a second half massacre.
Let’s take a look at the two combatants:
Oregon
The Ducks have been white-hot all year, losing only one game (the Arizona Wildcats), thanks in part to a dubious penalty, and they’ve long been a popular pick to be in the Championship Game. Of course, most of us figured that they’d be playing Alabama, not Ohio State. And they might have, if the BCS-era computers still ruled college football.
Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback for the Ducks, Marcus Mariota, has all the tools, and then some. He can throw a dart one play, and rip off a sixty-yard run the next. He’s also got a nice assortment of weapons on offense, though he’s also the sort of special player who can win it on his own. And Mariota may need to, now that he will be without suspended star receiver Darren Carrington, and running back Ayele Ford, both of whom have apparently failed drug tests. It’s far to say that the loss of Carrington is the bigger of the two: he had seven catches for 165 yards and two touchdowns against Florida State.
Defensively, the Ducks have improved out of sight. Collectively, their best game came against Florida State, where they forced 5 turnovers in the second half, and ran one back to the house. Yes, they gave up some yardage to the Seminole offense, but they stiffened when necessary, harassed FSU quarterback Jameis Winston, and, of course, forced those turnovers. If they can even get half that many against the Buckeyes, you imagine they would win the game.
We know the Oregon offense will be good – they always are – but the question is whether the defence can play like they did on New Year’s Day, and game plan successfully for the dual threat that Cardale Jones represents. He can throw the ball, sure, but he’s arguably more dangerous running it, where his giant frame – 6-5 and 250 pounds – turns him into a battering ram, and one who is deceptively quick.
Downfield, Oregon’s defence will need to silence receiver Devin Smith, who makes a living out of making giant receptions. He burned Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, and it will take a disciplined effort from the Ducks to ensure he doesn’t repeat that performance. Missing star cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu isn’t going to help that cause. Oregon’s defenders will also need to silence Ezekiel Elliott. The sophomore running back iced the game with an 85-yard touchdown run late against Alabama, part of a Sugar Bowl-record 230 yards.
The key for Oregon is to stop Ohio State’s offense, and give their potent offense good field position. If they can do that, then the Ducks will likely snare their first National Championship.
Ohio State
The Buckeyes, also dropping an early game (at home to Virginia Tech in September) have definitely been the surprise packet of the season, and perhaps of the last decade. They improved out of sight under second-string quarterback J.T. Barrett, but when he was hurt in the last regular season game against Michigan, forcing coach Urban Meyer to turn to third-stringer Cardale Jones, not many gave them a chance.
Except, the Buckeyes themselves. Jones is fast writing a serious legacy for himself in Columbus. He led a 59-0 demolition of Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game, and followed it up with a string of big plays in the Sugar Bowl win over Alabama. A bulkier and less flashy version of Mariota, Jones, whose nickname is 12-gauge due to the cannon he calls an arm, can make plays with his arms and his legs, more so than the last quarterback Oregon’s defence saw, Jameis Winston. Crucially, Jones has gotten better with each game he’s played. That’s bad news for Oregon.
As I mentioned above, Ohio State’s ground game is strong, with Ezekiel Elliott coming on strong in the latter half of the season. He’s going to see a lot of interest from the Oregon defence, which should open up the passing game, for Devin Smith and others. If the Ducks sell out to stop Elliott from gashing them on the ground, they’ll end up giving up big passing plays to Smith. He’s the master at the big play, and it seems he can make any catch asked of him.
Ohio State also have the horses on defence to give Oregon troubles. Linemen Joey Bosa, an All American (and a total beast) and Steve Miller, who scored a key defensive touchdown against Alabama, are going to make life difficult for Mariota and the Ducks ground game. The defensive line is probably the best part of the Buckeye defense, and it’s stout. They were brilliant against Alabama. If Bosa gets on a tear, watch out. If the Buckeyes force turnovers, watch out.
And let’s not forget Aussie punter, Cam Johnston. He’ll play an important part in the field position game.
Honestly, it’s hard to count the Buckeyes out. They surprised us against Wisconsin and again against Alabama, and they’re playing with the sort of self-belief that is unteachable and un-coachable. It either exists or it doesn’t. With Ohio State, it exists in spades. Then, of course, is their coach, Urban Meyer. A better coach you won’t find this side of the guy he beat in the Sugar Bowl, Alabama’s Nick Saban. Yeah, Meyer is that good.
Last Time They Met: 2010 Rose Bowl Game – Ohio State def. Oregon 26-17
Prediction
David vs. Goliath, Cinderella story, whatever you wish to call it, the stage is set…
I expect this to be a very close game, particularly with the key outs on both sides of the ball for Oregon, who are seven-point favourites with the odds-makers, and a lot hinges on how well the Ducks play defensively. Actually, the game will be won or lost defensively for both sides.
Oregon’s defence seem to be men possessed, and I think they’ll get just enough stops to allow Mariota to do his thing, and Oregon will pull away late, to win by about ten points. That said, I thought Alabama would win by the same margin in the Sugar Bowl, and look how that turned out! With the sort of belief that the Buckeyes (who, incidentally, are 8-0 all-time against Oregon) have in themselves, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they somehow pulled off a victory.
To avoid being labelled a fence-sitter: Oregon by ten.
Join The Roar for live coverage of college football’s Championship Game between Oregon and Ohio State on Tuesday from 12.30pm AEDT
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