When something unexpected happens once, or even twice, you put it down to being an aberration, an exception to the rule, a situation influenced, perhaps, by a series of freak incidents. When it happens three times in reasonably quick succession, you then have a problem.
The Oregon Ducks have a problem. For the third time in five calendar years, on a big college football stage, their ability to play to the standard that they set in the regular season – an astoundingly high one – has been tested, and the Ducks have been found wanting. All manner of wins and points during the regular season matter not if you can’t win when it really counts.
Let’s review the tale of the tape: in the 2010 Rose Bowl Game, the Ducks were beaten, and physically dominated, by Ohio State. A year later, the Auburn Tigers narrowly won a National Championship over Oregon, and just a handful of days ago, the Ducks were soundly beaten by another Ohio State squad, denying one of the most dominating regular season teams in recent memory their elusive first National Championship. Remember, also, that Oregon lost to LSU at the start of the season in 2011, when Les Miles’ squad had spring and summer practices to prepare.
The pattern here isn’t hard to see: that Oregon offense, spread, tempo, lightning-fast, big-scoring, that delivers so much success in the regular season, seems to be able to be examined and undone by very good teams when they have more than the standard preparation time. It’s an oft-talked about drawback to what’s otherwise a very potent offensive scheme.
It also doesn’t help that Oregon’s defense, particularly on Monday night against Ohio State, could not get enough key stops. They claimed five turnovers from Florida State in the Rose Bowl Game, which masked how many yards they also gave up. Had the Seminoles protected the football better – and, generally, played like a team worthy of being in a semi-final playoff for the right to be in the National Championship Game – the game might have ended differently.
Yes, it’s true that the ledger shows that the Ducks managed to wrest the ball away from Ohio State four times in the National Championship Game, none but the most ardent Duck fan could dispute that it was more that their players happened to be in the right place at the right time to capitalise on mistakes made by the Buckeyes. Bad fumbles, strange quarterback decisions and ugly transfers between quarterback and running back were all Buckeye mistakes, not so much errors caused by terrific defensive pressure.
For mine, Oregon needs a better defense. Why? Because, although they will generally score more points offensively than they give up on the other side of the football in the regular season, these playoff-calibre teams aren’t as porous on defense. To win championship games, you need a defense that can make tackles. The Ducks are great at nabbing turnovers – one of the best in the country, in fact – but they seemed completely unable to tackle Ezekiel Elliott and Cardale Jones, at least not before either man had ripped off a large chunk of yardage. It was as poor a team-wide attempt at tackling as I’ve seen in some time.
Conversely, look what the Buckeyes managed to do when Oregon had the football. That defensive line and linebacker corps, led by All American Joey Bosa and the vastly-improved Darron Lee, stuffed pretty much everything the Ducks tried. They limited Marcus Mariota’s influence running the ball – he was flushed to the edges, mostly, and knocked out of bounds before breaking off a big one; in short, it was Mariota like we hadn’t seen him this year: bottled up – and we watched the Heisman Trophy winner throw some pretty bad balls to wide-open receivers. It wasn't the polished Ducks squad we’re used to.
Forgive me for the cliché, but the one that talks about how offense gets the glory but defense wins the championships rings so true here. Look at the National Championship-winning teams over the last few years: Alabama, Florida State, recently, and further back to USC in 2005, LSU and Florida. What do they all possess? A killer defense.
Oregon needs to work on their fundamentals and the best way to do that is to have the best athletes coming in. The school needs to be in a position where they are recruiting legitimate talent on that side of the football, in the vein of Alabama or Ohio State. Imagine what the Ducks might be able to accomplish if they had guys like Joey Bosa or Trey DePriest or USC’s Leonard Williams on their team. They’d be downright scary, just as they are with A-grade talent on offense.
They also need to think hard about their offense, and it’s lack of success when the stakes are at their highest. These big-game flame-outs, where the Meyer’s, Chizik’s and Tressel’s of the world, can get on top of Oregon’s offensive scheme are worrisome.
By all rights, we should be talking about an Alabama-type dynasty in Eugene, were it not for these big-game failures. Instead, the Ducks have fallen too often at the final hurdle, and, to my mind, change is needed if they are to turn that around.
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