Wednesday, November 6, 2013

NCAA College Football 2013: Week 11 Foxtel Game of the Week



No. 2 Oregon at No. 5 Stanford

Where to Watch: 1.00pm, Friday – ESPN2/ESPN2-HD

After the ACC and SEC have stolen the spotlight of late, it’s the Pac-12’s turn to hold a game full of BCS National Championship implications, and it just so happens to feature the two most recognised west coast powers from recent seasons. Stanford and Oregon are set to reignite a rivalry that’s been growing and growing every year, and exploded last year when the Cardinal went into Eugene, OR and beat the previously-undefeated Ducks inside Autzen Stadium, which, of course, is no mean feat. 

That famous – or infamous, depending on which way you look at it – 17-14 overtime win wrecked Oregon’s hopes of a BCS National Championship Game appearance, destroyed QB Marcus Mariota’s shot at a Heisman Trophy and elevated the Cardinal into the box seat in the Pac-12 race, which ended with them squaring off against Wisconsin at the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day.

The stakes are similar this year in the matchup between the winners of the last four Pac-10/12 Conference Championships, and though Stanford enters the game with a surprise loss on it’s record (against Utah), David Shaw’s team should not be underestimated. Their defensive schemes worked perfectly against Oregon last year on the road, and it would be wise to assume that the Cardinal will look to slow the Ducks down in the same manner this year.

Stopping Mariota is the key. If it was hard last year, it’s nigh on impossible this year. The Ducks quarterback, who is surely right amongst the Heisman Trophy race, has thrown for 2,281 yards and 20 touchdowns so far this season, whilst rushing for 547 yards and nine scores on the ground. His speed and his ability to escape the pocket and turn seemingly a nothing play into a big one is almost unmatched. Outside of Johnny Manziel, Mariota is the most difficult offensive player to plan for in all of football. 

Worse, if you’re a defender hoping to rattle the guy into a mistake, Mariota’s proven that he’s basically unflappable. He hasn’t thrown an interception all season. Indeed, his last pick was in the corresponding game against Stanford nearly a calendar year go. It’s quite an incredible stat, one that must scare the daylights out of defensive coordinators. Stanford has forced turnovers in 33 consecutive games. Obviously, that impressive streak is in some jeopardy on Thursday night.

It’s not all doom and gloom for Stanford. The Cardinal, after a loss in an uneven performance against Utah, have, in back-to-back games since, shut down UCLA’s freewheeling QB Brett Hundley and then Oregon State’s quarterback Sean Mannion, whose season (at least up until getting battered by USC on Friday night) has been pretty spectacular. 

Stanford’s excellent gap-plugging, hard-nosed defense – their tackling pressure and discipline is some of the best in football – is what’s going to be the catalyst, should they end up winning. Last year, they held Mariota to a pedestrian 207 yards passing, with a pick and a touchdown, and managed to keep him in check on the ground. There was a 77-yard scamper early on, and not much after that. In fact, he managed only another twelve yards after that long run. The Cardinal’s defensive penetration was first-rate, and there were many times in last year’s game where Mariota looked noticeably harried by Stanford’s swarming tacklers. 

Saying that Stanford need to get Mariota out of his comfort zone is tough, when he’s been displaying nerves of steel all season long. Then again, he went in with the same sort of season rolling last year, and the Cardinal got to him. It’s got to help their confidence knowing that they were able to do it last year. Who knows? It might just work against Mariota, too.

Can they do it again? Yes, but they’re going to have to be at the absolute top of their game. The offense, led by QB Kevin Hogan, needs long drives – that score six rather than three – to give the defense a chance to recover from the very taxing job of stopping Mariota and his fleet of talented receivers and running backs. Stopping that multiple-threat offense requires a great deal of concentration and effort.

Three and outs for Stanford aren’t going to work. They need to score, obviously, but also possess the football wherever possible. The more time the Ducks offense is watching the game from the sidelines, the better. As good as you are, you can’t score from there. Football fundamentals, preached by coaches from the first day a kid picks up the pigskin, are going to be ultra-important defensively for Stanford. Tackle, tackle, tackle. Wrap up. No arm tackles. Get a guy to the ground. Do that on every play, get some help from the offense, and a turnover or two, and Stanford might just do it.

Prediction: A defense-happy, low-scoring game, with a narrow Oregon win.

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