Coming in to Saturday night’s showdown at the Los Angeles
Memorial Coliseum, these two teams could not be any further apart in terms of
pressure and expectation.
A week after Stanford played it’s best game of the year –
perhaps the best game played by anyone this year – to completely stifle
Oregon’s dangerous, high-octane offense, the Cardinal suddenly find themselves
thrust back into discussion about the BCS National Championship Game in
Pasadena in early January. They’re one of those teams lurking, like Baylor and
Ohio State, and hoping that Alabama or Florida State will stumble between now
and Championship Weekend.
In comparison, USC has no expectation and no pressure whatsoever.
This is a team whose season most people wrote off after embarrassing – albeit
for different reasons – back-to-back losses against Washington State and
Arizona State, which brought about the timely demise of tightly-wound head
coach Lane Kiffin. The most polarising figure in college football was replaced
by the exuberant Ed Orgeron, and, suddenly, the Trojans have won Pac-12 games
and are getting their swagger back.
Quarterback Cody Kessler looks like a completely different
sort of player to the tentative, uncertain one we saw under Kiffin,
All-American Wide Receiver Marqise Lee is back healthy, as are so many other
players on offense. As a team, they are showing the skill and talent buried
beneath so many of Kiffin’s shenanigans.
Look out, USC are dangerous. Stanford would be wise to not
overlook a team that is playing with renewed confidence in themselves and in
their ability to execute. The Cardinal, leading the Pac-12 North, have the
inside track to the Pac-12 Championship Game, which is a nice position to be
in, but USC have no such luxury. A win on Saturday night, however, would thrust
them right back into a battle for the Pac-12 South that’s a three-way scrap at
the moment, between USC, their crosstown rivals UCLA and Arizona State.
A win on Saturday night will put Stanford right there on the
brink of another conference championship game appearance – they lead the Pac-12
North by a half game on Oregon, and if results go the right way, the Cardinal
may host the championship game. A win on Saturday night will also be the fifth
straight win against Southern California, with whom they’ve had quite a rivalry
over the years. Remember the words between Harbaugh and Carroll post-game in
2009? That confrontation really stoked the fires between the two teams, and is
perhaps what’s propelled the Cardinal to their consecutive string of victories.
Unbelievably, after a loss to Utah earlier in the season, the
Cardinal is right back in the hunt for more than just Pac-12 honours. Their
defense, so impressive against Oregon last week, will need to back that up with
another strong effort, for the Trojans under Ed Orgeron have found their
offensive legs, and in the last two weeks have put up nearly a thousand total
yards (including 498 yards rushing) in impressive routs of Oregon State and
California, both of which came on the road.
The Trojans will be hoping that a return to Los Angeles for
Homecoming Weekend, will be just a continuation of the good form that they’ve
showed in winning all conference games under Orgeron, whose performance in
getting the team back on track has him talked about amongst Texas A&M’s
Kevin Sumlin, Boise State’s Chris Petersen and Vanderbilt’s James Franklin as
being possibilities to become the next head coach at Southern California. If
reports are to be believed, the successful candidate will be known by December.
As good as Southern California has been over the last few
weeks, I don’t know that they can beat Stanford – a hard thing for me, a huge
USC fan, to write. It will undoubtedly be a close game. Whether they’ve been
3OT thrillers or defensive grinds, recent games between the Cardinal and the
Trojans have been close, and Stanford has always been able to draw on a little
more to get the win.
Their offense is accustomed to choking the life out of
opposition teams. It’s hard as a defense to stay with this Cardinal team. As
much as you know what’s coming, they still get you. QB Kevin Hogan doesn’t dazzle
anyone, but he rarely makes mistakes, and RB Tyler Gaffney was the hero of the Oregon
game, battering the Ducks for 157 yards on a whopping 45 carries.
Playing in the Coliseum – which will be sold out for the
first time in 2013 – doesn’t seem to worry Stanford, either. Aside from winning
four straight meetings in this series, they’ve also won three straight in Los
Angeles, including the famous 2007 victory. In that game, the Cardinal were
41-point underdogs, yet beat a stacked
USC team featuring QB John David Booty and TE Fred Davis amongst others, by a
point, 24-23 with backup QB Tavita Pritchard making his first ever college
start. It’s a day that still lives in infamy for USC fans, and one of the greatest
moments in Stanford history.
If Stanford can shut down the USC running game, which has
been prolific over the last few weeks, I think they win by a couple of
touchdowns. It’s been the Javorious ‘Buck’ Allen show on the ground of late. In
the last two weeks, he’s scored five touchdowns and run for 268 yards on twenty
two carries, as well as made an impact in the passing game. The other USC RB,
Penn State transfer Silas Redd, will not play.
Stanford’s defense isn’t going to let the Trojans march down
the field like they’ve done against Cal and Oregon State lately, and it’s – unfortunately
– unlikely that Buck Allen and the other USC backs are going to enjoy the same
sort of ground game production against a Stanford defense that’s incredibly
good in the trenches, allowing less than a hundred rushing yards a game. They
held Oregon to less than seventy. They grind on you in a similar manner to
their offense.
That leaves Trojan QB Cody Kessler. He’s been good over the
last few weeks, with crisp passing and few turnovers. On Saturday, he’ll need
to do more than just protect the football. He’ll need to make big plays to the
lethal wide receiver combination of All-American Marqise Lee and standout
Nelson Agholor (who starred on special teams last week against Cal) if USC are
going to have any chance. Stanford’s defense, as we know from last week, are
expects at preventing the big play. I fear it’ll be tough sledding.
Prediction: The game will be decided late…Stanford by two
touchdowns.
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