Join The Roar for live blog coverage of the 2015 Orange Bowl, the first national semi-final, on New Year’s Day from 8:00am AEDT
After more than thirty lead-up Bowl games, New Year’s Day (Australian time) brings us the main event: the first national semi-final, pitting the No. 1 Clemson Tigers from the Atlantic Coast Conference against the No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners from the Big Twelve for the right to play for a national title in twelve days’ time.
Surprisingly, given that Dabo Swinney’s Tigers come in with the only unblemished record amongst the four semi-final combatants, they are given more chance of losing to the late-rising Sooners than I expected. Whilst the Tigers will deservedly enter the game as warm favourites amongst pundits – not to mention odds makers in Las Vegas – there’s a general feeling across the college football landscape that Oklahoma, who rebounded after a shocking loss to Texas to win seven straight and get into the final four, are poised to spring an upset in South Beach.
Maybe that's because the Tigers haven’t been completely polished in their contests against top-tier opposition this year: they narrowly defeated Notre Dame in the wet, only after a furious Irish comeback, took their time ousting ACC contenders Florida State (also on an ugly day, weather-wise) and had struggles beating North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game in their last start. In that contest, a 45-37 victory, the Tigers secondary looked suspect against a hot North Carolina offense.
You can bet, then, that the Oklahoma offense will look to target that vulnerable unit early and often, and Sooner quarterback Baker Mayfield, a smart quarterback who rarely turns the football over and can make plays with his legs as well, has the weapons outside to really make some inroads, that group led by the nearly-unstoppable Sterling Shepard, who has authored a stack of big plays for the Sooners this year. Not surprisingly, he’s Mayfield’s favourite target, and if he gets loose in the Clemson secondary, watch out.
Of course, Clemson have their own dangerous quarterback in the form of Atlantic Coast player of the year DeShaun Watson, and he has a wealth of talent on the edges, too, if he can limit turnovers, which have been a problem at times this year. One guy I’ve loved – and could be a huge factor here – is tight end Jordan Leggett. Depending on who you talk to, he’s in the top three as far as the nation’s best at that position, and he’s certainly in my top five. If he gets a chance to make some plays, it might tilt things in Clemson’s favour.
Defense will pretty much be an afterthought in a game matching two explosive offenses, but the Sooner defense, led by star linebacker Eric Striker and a stout defensive line, are certainly capable of getting to Watson and really shutting down the quarterback run game, which has been strong all year for Clemson. Limiting Watson using his feet will be a major win for Oklahoma. Undoubtedly, this will be the biggest test of the season for the Sooner defense.
Clemson will rely on their excellent defensive end, Shaq Lawson, to force Mayfield into bad throws, which is something that hasn’t happened often this year. Lawson, though, might be the guy to change all of that. He leads all comers with 22.5 sacks and figures to be a pretty regular fixture marauding in the Sooner backfield.
The run game is where I feel the Sooners can do some damage. After all, they have the giant one-two punch of Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon, who have combined for more than 2000 rushing yards between them. When Perine goes off, on comes Mixon, a guy who would start at most elite programs across the country if he so chose.
Clemson certainly boasts a good back in Wayne Gallman, but he’s pretty much a one-man band for the Tigers, but not quite on the same level as Perine and Mixon, both of whom are game-breakers. Gallman might find it tough going against the Sooner front. Clemson’s front won’t get a break.
Prediction: I’m leaning towards Oklahoma – their coach Bob Stoops has a very good record at getting his teams up for big games – at the moment in a high-scoring game, but may flip back to Clemson before kick-off. Whatever happens, I have a feeling this will be a very close, hard-fought game.
Join The Roar for live blog coverage of the 2015 Orange Bowl, the first national semi-final, on New Year’s Day from 8:00am AEDT
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